IS Enda Kenny destined to lead Fine Gael to the brink of the promised land only, Moses-like, to be denied entry himself? If and when Fine Gael does lead the next government, Kenny will be able to take the majority of the credit. He rescued a party that was on the verge of extinction when he took over as leader in 2002 and turned it around to the point where, for the first time in its history, it overtook Fianna Fáil in the polls.

The hard reality, however, is that this may not be enough to guarantee he will still be leader of Fine Gael come the next general election.

If there was one thing all Fine Gael TDs were agreed on last week, it was that the departure of George Lee – about whom they are, almost to a man and woman, privately scathing – wasn't going to dictate the leadership of their party. "We didn't want George to be the catalyst," said one TD.

But there is no doubt that Lee's departure has finally turned attention to the elephant in the Fine Gael room – Kenny's leadership. And while the party ultimately closed ranks around its leader last week, few believe that this is the end of the matter.

Even last week's endorsement was by all accounts a close-run thing. On Monday afternoon, Kenny's position was far from secure. It is known that in the wake of Lee's shock departure, some frontbench figures, along with backbenchers, took soundings to gauge the level of backing for deputy leader Richard Bruton to take over.

There are mixed views in the party as to what would have happened if Bruton had moved against Kenny last week, but the majority view is that it would have proved decisive. It didn't come to that for a number of reasons. While Bruton clearly has leadership ambitions, he also retains an old-style loyalty to the leader and would be extremely reluctant to challenge Kenny.

The fact that nobody in the parliamentary party blamed Kenny for Lee leaving was also crucial. "Even those who would be critical of Kenny didn't think he did anything wrong with Lee," said one deputy. The personal fondness for Kenny added to a respect for what he has achieved as leader and a genuine horror at the prospect of returning to the bad old days of leadership heaves and splits also counted in the leader's favour.

But the credit rating that Kenny has undoubtedly built up won't be enough to save him if Fine Gael starts to slip in the opinion polls. Kenny's personal ratings have never been good and it's clear the electorate has reservations about him as Taoiseach. But he could always point to the unprecedented performance of his party in the polls. If that poll advantage begins to slide, it's hard to see Kenny surviving.

It's nearly three decades since Fine Gael won a general election. Not winning the next one, particularly given the economic climate and the weakness of Fianna Fáil, is simply unthinkable. It won't take much to set nerves jangling.

It may already be happening, even if yesterday's Irish Independent poll result will have provided a fair bit of reassurance. One Fine Gael backbench TD told the Sunday Tribune this weekend that "there are a lot of people who believe we need radical change in the party and that includes a new leader".

The TD claimed that Simon Coveney and Brian Hayes – both highly regarded in the party – expressed significant concerns about Kenny's leadership at the party's frontbench meeting last Monday. Coveney went on to give Kenny a less than ringing endorsement in an interview with RTE's Morning Ireland, although he did later move to clarify his comments.

"They are not confident that the party is on the right footing," the backbench TD said. "They voiced concerns about Kenny that are felt throughout most of the backbenches. There has been rearguard action from people like Phil Hogan and Paddy Burke, who are close to Kenny, but most people have concerns," the deputy said. He added: "He is a dead man walking and it is very clear that he is not capable to lead us into government. People feel bad about it, but he is not up to it. The economy and job creation is the only game in town and Enda clearly has no grasp of it. He is not capable of getting a grasp of it.

"People point to the recent Newstalk and the The Late Late Show interviews as being poor, but the reality is that he has been poor in media performances going back a lot longer than that. We can't risk having him in a leaders' debate on TV in the next general election and performing like he did in the 2007 debate with Bertie Ahern".

Kenny's decision not to tell even senior figures about Lee's impending departure, while probably understandable in case the Dublin South deputy could have been persuaded to change his mind, has further fuelled criticism that the leader is "surrounding himself with a comfort blanket" of his own team of advisors.

"We all think that it is bizarre that Kenny met George Lee the week before and did not tell any of us. He wouldn't tell his own elected members, but the paid advisors around him knew about it. That has really annoyed TDs and senators," one deputy said.

Whatever about that, it is surprising that Richard Bruton only became aware of the news when told by media figures around lunchtime on Monday. It seems to confirm the whispers in Fine Gael that Kenny and his deputy leader are not close and have minimal communication. There is a view in some quarters that despite (or perhaps because of) his positive public rating, Bruton has been frozen out of decision making in the party with power being centred in a small group around Kenny. Certainly, it was possible to detect some irritation in Bruton's demeanour during media interviews last week.

If Kenny is to go, his finance spokesman is the only logical successor but, despite reportedly making a wonderful speech to the parliamentary party meeting last week, not everyone in Fine Gael is convinced he would be a better choice than the incumbent. His prowess in economics is undoubted but, even in a time of recession, being party leader requires a broader skill set and Bruton's more reserved personality would be less suited to the canvass than the out-going Kenny.

But the real fear within Fine Gael is that, if the party slips back in the polls, it will leave Labour in a powerful position to negotiate a coalition deal after the next election. There is no question of Labour securing more seats than Fine Gael (or Fianna Fáil for that matter) in the next election. But if it were to win close to 40 seats – unlikely but not impossible – the party would undoubtedly raise the issue of a revolving Taoiseach and would be seeking six or seven seats at the cabinet table. Fine Gael would be back in power alright, but at an enormous cost and with a coalition partner demanding an almost equal influence. That will not appeal to Fine Gael, particularly the young turks who patently have little time for Labour.

If this scenario becomes a realistic possibility then Kenny's position would become untenable, unpalatable as it undoubtedly would be for many Fine Gael TDs to move against a leader they like personally. Party insiders say, if it does happen, it would be essential to avoid the kind of bloodletting that happened in the past. "People want to show him dignity and let him fall on his own sword. He has brought the party a long way and he has to be respected for that," one deputy said.

But Kenny has no intention of 'falling on his own sword'. As a political strategist, he shouldn't be underestimated. Kenny moved to head off dissent ahead of the parliamentary party meeting last week by meeting a number of TDs who would be regarded as potential dissenters. And he performed very well in the media interviews he did after Lee's departure.

As of today, he remains the favourite to become Taoiseach after the next general election. But everything depends on the opinion polls between now and June. The perceived wisdom within the parliamentary party is that any challenge has to materialise before the summer; after that there won't be any change. If he gets to the summer break still in situ, the promised land may just be attainable after all.