The countdown is almost complete. There are just two days to go before what is arguably the most important budget in the history of the state, and certainly the most crucial in a generation. As a sports commentator might breathlessly declare before a big international match kicks off, a nation waits expectantly; so, perhaps more importantly, do the international markets.

The future starts here. The task – to raise €2bn in new taxes and obtain €2bn in savings and to do so without killing the economy – is formidable. In so many ways, it will be easier to get it wrong than to get it right. Here, the Sunday Tribune's political staff, Shane Coleman and Conor McMorrow, outline 10 boxes finance minister Brian Lenihan has to tick on Tuesday afternoon.

1. Get it through the Dáil

Rule number one with any budget is to get it passed – just ask John Bruton, whose 1982 budget brought down a Fine Gael-Labour government. Given the relative tightness of the Dáil arithmetic and the brutally tough decisions that need to be made, the government knows this isn't a given – hence the number of cabinet meetings to discuss the budget.

While there are suggestions of tensions with the Green Party on issues such as the scrappage scheme and reductions in overseas aid, the smaller coalition partner will be on board.

The bigger worry is Fianna Fáil backbenchers and independents Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rae. The former group can live with a painful budget but some of them will have a breaking point. The same holds for Lowry and Healy-Rae, two of the canniest operators in the Dáil. Lenihan and Cowen must ensure there is enough in the overall package of budgetary, fiscal stimulus and banking measures to allow these deputies to register their 'tá' on Tuesday night.

2. Delivering the cystic fibrosis unit

Yes, money is unbelievably tight but, beg, steal or (more plausibly) borrow, the government must find the money to keep its promise that a brand new building with state-of-the-art accommodation for CF patients will be provided at Dublin's St Vincent's hospital. If the money can be found to allocate €69.7m to the Horse and Greyhound Racing Fund in 2009, then a fraction of that can be found for the CF unit.

At every budget, there are pleadings from every vested interest in the country making exaggerated claims to suit their purpose. This is most certainly not the case with the Cystic Fibrosis Association of Ireland. And if the government is serious about its intention to protect the most vulnerable from the impact of the unavoidable cutbacks, then it must have some good news on the unit on Tuesday. If it does not, the controversy threatens to overshadow the entire budget package.

3. Cut the number of junior ministers

In the context of a budget deficit of billions, cutting the number of junior ministers won't even make a dent, but in terms of showing leadership and setting an example, it is absolutely vital. There is no justification for 20 junior ministers – even those 20 would struggle to say what their colleagues do. It is difficult enough to make a case for 15 junior ministers – 10 would almost certainly suffice – but politically, it's probably expecting too much to look for a cull of more than five.

Other 'leadership' measures are essential: an end to the ludicrous system under which serving politicians receive ministerial pensions; the derailing of the committee gravy train in the Oireachtas; and the limiting of the outrageous and unvouched-for expenses paid to TDs and senators. Whether or not the public will be willing to accept the inevitable pain next Tuesday is unknown, but they certainly will not unless they can see clearly that the political system is also doing its bit.

4. Setting out a road map for recovery

There is a concern in some quarters that the government has decided to shy away from the really harsh medicine – particularly with spending cuts – because of the political fallout. The government, however, argues that to take €5bn more out of the economy – on top of the €1.7bn it already delivered two months ago – would risk virtually shutting the economy down. It may have a point but if, as expected, it goes for about €3.5bn in taxes and cutbacks, it will need to set out in detail how it can tackle the structural deficit in the country's finances over the next three to four years. An argument that the adjustment must be done over a period of time will be credible only if the government can outline what exactly that entails.

5. Convincing the international markets

As we all now know, Standard and Poor's credit rating agency has already demoted Ireland from an AAA to an AA+ rating. Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, the other two major credit rating agencies, will be watching Tuesday's budget closely. Unlike Standard and Poor's, they are waiting for the budget before they make their ratings decisions and there is still a chance they could retain Ireland's AAA rating if they are impressed with the budget.

Investors on international markets who buy Irish government bonds will also be watching with interest. The international markets look more clinically at a budget than any politician can so they generally favour spending cuts over income tax hikes. In recent weeks, the government has signalled that there may be an increase in government borrowing above the target of 9.5% of output. It has been mooted that this target could slip back as far as 11% and this could erode Ireland's reputation from the perspective of the markets. The budget, by taking decisive action and laying out spending and revenue plans for the years ahead, needs to dispel international scepticism about the government and the economy.

6. It's the banks, stupid

It mightn't be popular with the punters, but the government has got to sort out the serious problems that persist in banking if the overall budget package is to have any credibility. It is expected that the government will this week announce the setting up of a special state agency that would take over bad property loans from the banks. The agency, funded by public- and private-sector equity, will effectively buy the loans, and the property behind them, at a much reduced price, and then manage that property, potentially taking advantage of any upturn in the economy by developing or selling it. This will allow the banks to get those loans off their books and free up capital. As a complementary measure, the government could also pledge another injection of cash into the country's two largest banks, AIB and Bank of Ireland.

7. Spreading the pain equally

On Friday, Taoiseach Brian Cowen stated that the budget will have to show "a fairness" and "proportionality". And if one of the toughest budgets in the history of the state is to be accepted, then there will have to be a perception that the pain has been equally distributed. Acceptance of the budget among the general populace is absolutely critical if it is to achieve one of its primary goals – alongside, obviously, restoring order to the public finances – which is inspiring consumer confidence. The government badly needs people to start spending again. That is easier said than done but it's clear that a budget that is seen to be hitting one sector unfairly or disproportionately will not help.

8. Jobs, jobs, jobs

With unemployment potentially rising to 500,000 by the end of year, the budget, in so far as it is possible in a small, open economy, needs to include measures that will help retain and create jobs.

Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan for the US economy is founded on job creation. In Britain, prime minister Gordon Brown has said he wants to create around 100,000 new jobs through a programme of public works with echoes of Franklin D Roosevelt's 1930s New Deal in the US.

Closer to home, job creation has been to the fore in the economic plans of opposition parties in Leinster House. Labour, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael have all published job creation proposals ahead of the emergency budget. Labour has proposed a scheme that will exempt employers from paying employers' PRSI for 18 months if they hire someone who has been unemployed for more than six months. Fine Gael has an €11bn economic stimulus plan which it claims can generate 100,000 new jobs over the next four years. Sinn Féin has launched a 'Getting Ireland back to work' job-creation plan and a €300m job-retention fund to subsidise workers in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) that are struggling to retain their employees.

There are some good ideas in all these plans and, as part of the requirement to build confidence, Tuesday's announcement must include some innovative policies on employment.

9. Delivering a gaffe-free budget

The world famous Cirque du Soleil show ends a week-long run in Dublin's O2 arena tonight after entertaining audiences with its trademark acrobatic manoeuvres. In the weeks after Brian Lenihan's first budget last October, the government came to specialise in its own trademark manoeuvre, the U-turn.

Lenihan cannot afford a repeat performance. The ending of the automatic right to a medical card for over-70s was economically prudent (it is interesting to note that the two main opposition parties did not seek to reverse it in their pre-budget plans launched last week). However, it was politically disastrous, bringing thousands of old people protesting on the streets and resulting in the defection of Fianna Fáil TD Joe Behan. Another series of forced U-turns would be politically damaging to a government and economically disastrous for the country.

10. Sell, sell, sell... selling the budget

Brian Cowen has spoken about the importance of agents from the National Treasury Management Agency going abroad to let the international community know that the problem is not as bad as had been suggested. That is vital – Ireland hasn't got the credit internationally for the measures it has taken to date. But it is important to sell the budget at home too.

The information deficit about pensioners' medical cards after last October's budget was a major factor in the campaign against the move. The government can't afford to get caught unawares again. That means getting the best media performers and most economically literate ministers – the likes of Willie O'Dea and Dermot Ahern – out early and often to persuade and convince, and having the necessary facts and figures to hand immediately.