What does the future hold for the 2009 Leaving Certificate class? Unemployment? Emigration? Paying the Nama bill for their entire working lives? Working until they are 80? Living for decades in an Ireland absent of Fianna Fáil rule?

The majority of the 57,500 students who got their exam results last Wednesday were born between 1991 and 1992. So 'Generation X-Factor' has never known anything but the good times, until quite recently.

Having never lived through the era where we depended on an Italia '90, a Euro '88, or even a Eurovision win to lift the national mood, the class of 2009 are a privileged group in recent Irish history.

But Ireland has changed, changed utterly, and the babies delivered as the Celtic Tiger was born now face a less certain future than their predecessors who sat the Leaving Certificate at any stage over the last 15 years.

Last week Rossa White, chief economist with Davy Research in Dublin, warned that unemployment will reach a peak of 15% by the end of next year. This could mean emigration for many Irish people. And if last week's signs of a surprise fast recovery in Germany and France come to fruition, these countries will be the likely destinations for a new wave of emigrants.

The only brush with emigration the class of 2009 has had to date has been watching those people with strange haircuts and woolly jumpers queuing to get out of the country on the RTé nostalgia series Reeling in the Years. So will the country come full circle?

Last Thursday, the Boston Globe carried an extensive feature under the headline 'From Ireland… to the United States (again)'. The piece was about people who had left Boston for Ireland during the boom and are now returning to the States in the recession.

So, even though our emigration is not of Reeling in the Years proportions it is already happening and while many of the class of 2009 can ride out the recession in full-time education, those who are not lucky enough to get third-level places may have to at least consider emigrating.

Maureen O'Sullivan, the late Tony Gregory's election agent, was thrust into the unenviable position of trying to follow in the footsteps of the legendary TD following her Dublin Central by-election success on 5 June. The new TD also had to wave goodbye to her long career as an English teacher at St Mary's school in Baldoyle after her election.

But last week, while many TDs were enjoying their summer breaks, O'Sullivan was back in the school wearing another hat. She was also the school's career guidance teacher so she returned to advise the class of 2009 on their future career paths.

"My view on the girls is that they are extremely bright and positive about their future. I am not sure if the cutbacks and the recession have really hit them yet but they are really positive," she said.

"The girls who have applied through the CAO [Central Applications Office] will not have their offers until Monday, but the girls going on to do PLCs [Post-Leaving Cert courses] are all looking forward to starting their courses.

"Young people are positive about the immediate future and they only live in the immediate future. I belong to a generation where the emphasis was on getting a permanent pensionable job, but that is not even on most young people's radar. They are talking about going to college and completing their courses before going travelling. Reality can hit later when they get a bit older."

While O'Sullivan was encouraged by the girls' youthful optimism, other observers are not as optimistic about the future prospects of the class of 2009.

Tom O'Connor, economist at Cork IT, believes that by the time these students qualify in their chosen fields, unemployment will still be very high and many will have to emigrate, at least for a few years at the beginning of their careers.

He believes that the most likely employment areas will be in informatics (manufacturing devices that link IT and communications systems), high-quality food production, sustainable energy and in health and social care, given that an increasingly greater proportion of the population will be old.

Fianna Fáil, the party that has dominated Irish politics for much of the history of the state, is currently at one of the lowest points in its history. So will the class of '09 live through an era of seismic political change?

With the exception of the period between December 1994 and June 1997 when John Bruton led the Rainbow Coalition, Ireland's Generation X-Factor has lived under Fianna Fáil rule for their entire lives.

O'Connor predicted, "They will live in politically exciting times with many new different coalition combinations. You might see coalitions involving Sinn Féin and Fine Gael or other previously unthinkable combinations."

The president of Dublin City University (DCU), Ferdinand von Prondzynski, believes that it is impossible to predict the future path of Irish party politics but boldly suggested that the class of 2009 will see a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition in their lifetimes.

"In the past, the experience has been that these coalitions only last for one term," he said. "My own prediction would be that this won't change much. I would guess that they will experience a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition at some point."

Daunting

One of the most daunting predictions for the 2009 class made by Von Prondzynski is his belief that Generation X-Factor will have to continue working until they are 75 or 80.

He said, "When [German chancellor] Bismarck set the retirement age at 65, it was in the late 1870s. If you work out the actuarial data and apply it to today, retirement should be at 75 or 80. We can't afford the current regime, and there will be a change."

O'Connor agrees with Von Prondzynski and said, "Most of the 2009 class will not enjoy the Rolls Royce defined contribution pensions where they would get 50% of their earnings on retirement after 40 years. Instead they will have to pay more for their pensions and its future size will depend on how many contributions they make. They will also be forced to shoulder the burden of a huge old-age population by the time they are in their mid 30s."

Taking it a step further he added, "With all the financial pressure and the move to 'intensive' parenting, over half of them will probably decide to have only one child and about a fifth will make a conscious decision not to have children."

While O'Connor believes most of the class of 2009 will be able to own their own homes as "affordability should still be in the market for several years after they qualify", Von Prondzynski reckons that fewer people will own their own homes than in past generations.

He argues that the idea of home ownership as the ultimate investment for everyone was unusual anyway as it is not the case in most continental European countries where people rent for their whole lives.

Dr Aodh Quinlivan of the Department of Government at UCC added, "These students will pay more taxes and they will not be given 100% mortgages by the banks but these are not necessarily bad developments."

Crisis

He recognises that the 57,500 students are finishing school at a time of unprecedented global and national economic crisis but warned that "they will not get anywhere by wallowing in self-pity about the state of the economy or cursing the misfortune of timing".

The co-author of the recent All Politics is Local book, Quinlivan subscribes to the view that every economic downturn provides opportunities for creative thinking and entrepreneurship.

As these students were typically born between 1990 and 1992, he believes this was "a time of great hope with Mary Robinson, President, inviting them to come and dance with her in modern Ireland".

"The dance music may have changed in 2009 but the tempo of the music is more realistic.

"For a long time, we all lived in an artificial bubble created by excesses in the property market and excesses in our personal spending habits," he said.

"The bubble has now well and truly burst and we have no option but to change and this, I believe, is a good thing and a golden opportunity for the class of '09. To paraphrase Paul Simon from 'Boy in the Bubble', these can be the days of miracle and wonder."

For the last decade, any college graduates and school leavers who wanted a job got a job, but the new batch of school leavers will not enjoy that luxury as they will be forced into a more competitive environment.

Quinlivan believes that third-level education will be the key for the majority and the benefits of this are two-fold. First, remaining in the education system for three, four or five more years offers a certain comfort while the recession plays out.

Secondly, if these students spend their time wisely in college, they will hopefully emerge with lots of ideas about how to bring Ireland into a position of economic recovery.

He said, "Hopefully the class of '09 will be guided and inspired by outstanding, creative and charismatic political leadership in Ireland, offering the hope and promise that Barack Obama is currently providing in the United States."

Quinlivan cited a quote from former US president John F Kennedy, which he made in his speech to the Oireachtas during his visit to Ireland in 1963.

Kennedy proclaimed, "This is an extraordinary country… It is that quality of the Irish, the remarkable combination of hope, confidence and imagination that is needed more than ever today."

Quinlivan said, "This is especially true in 2009. The current crop of Leaving Cert students face a challenging future but I am confident they will meet the challenges head on. If they do so, the future is bright."

Maureen O'Sullivan will be on the phone to students from St Mary's in Baldoyle all day tomorrow.

The CAO offers will be out and the former career guidance counsellor is eager to see where her pupils "will end up", these young people she had earlier said "only live in the immediate future".

It is ironic that the collapse of the property bubble has left the class of 2009 with such an uncertain future, as many of those responsible for inflating the bubble did so out of their selfish obsession with their own immediate futures.