ANOTHER week and yet more appendages on the four-legged stool that is the current coalition government are looking decidedly shaky. Ten days ago, the Fianna Fáil leg had a inch or two shaved off the bottom with the loss of Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon from the parliamentary party. Then last week, the Green leg started to shake from the bottom up over the highly contentious issue of Nama. And, as if that wasn't enough, part of a third leg, independent Jackie Healy-Rae, warned on Friday that he would withdraw his support for the government if suggested cuts in the rural transport scheme go ahead.

The suspicion continues to grow that it is only a matter of time before one or more of the legs – whether it proves to be Fianna Fáil backbenchers, the Greens, the TDs formerly known as the PDs or the other government-supporting independents – gives way entirely and brings the entire government furniture crashing down.

Ultimately, it should be possible to assuage Healy-Rae's concerns. The Green leg, while looking a tad wobbly, should also manage to stay upright – for the Nama Dáil vote anyway.

But there is no doubt that the strain of a series of probably necessary, but hugely unpopular, measures is beginning to show and the government is starting to creak.

Nama was always going to be a difficult one for the Green grassroots. The party has consistently opposed – on it has to be said well argued planning grounds – the rampant development that took place during the boom. Now in government it is being asked to effectively authorise the propping-up of that development, albeit as a least-worst option.

To say it goes against the instincts of most Greens is a massive understatement. The level of the opposition in the party to Nama varies from those opposed to the whole concept to members who accept that it is inevitable and unavoidable, but want to see a greater level of transparency in the whole process.

Those holding the latter view seem to be much more numerous than the outright anti-Nama members. But, even among this more pragmatic group, the depth of feeling should not be underestimated. The belief among at least some members is that such is the importance of this issue, both now and for future generations, they have to take a stand, even if it results in the government collapsing. What bigger or better issue, they believe, could there be on which to hold a general election.

Nama convention

It is unlikely to come to that though the party convention to debate Nama will certainly happen. By Friday afternoon, four Dáil constituency groups – Kerry North, Dublin Central, Waterford and Dublin South Central – had put forward valid motions calling for the holding of the special convention. It is a matter of when, and not if, the required fifth motion is forthcoming.

It seems improbable that the convention will, as was initially feared, lead to a situation where Green TDs are mandated to oppose the Nama legislation. Improbable but, it has to be said, not entirely impossible.

The Nama-sceptic members of the party do not necessarily accept the perceived wisdom that it will have to secure a two-thirds majority to force the leadership to change its stance on the controversial legislation due to come before the Dáil in the middle of next month. Much, they say, will depend on the framing of the motion or motions to be put to the convention and that will be the key battleground over the next week or two.

One possible scenario is that multiple options are put to the convention via a so-called 'preferendum', which seeks to find a consensus by asking members to rank their preferences rather than voting for or against one single approach.

Compromise

The problem is that, while all sides will certainly be keen to find a compromise, it will be difficult to find a solution that will allow the Green TDs to vote for Nama and at the same time assuage the concerns of those members who want to see bondholders and shareholders in the banks, rather than the taxpayer, take more of the pain.

The government is simply not going to accept such a radical change to the legislation – the belief in the Department of Finance is that however politically desirable it might be, penalising bondholders will turn Ireland into a pariah on the international markets – and the Nama-sceptics in the Greens are not going to be happy with some form of sop that allows tweaking around the edges of the legislation to give it a 'greener' tinge.

It has to be said it is difficult to envisage a scenario whereby two-thirds of the party would effectively defy the wishes of the leadership, regardless of how strongly members feel and how genuine those feelings are. That level of revolt would almost certainly mean the end of the government and would raise serious questions about the Green leadership.

A repeat of what happened with the first Lisbon referendum is a more likely outcome. In that case, the leadership-inspired motion calling for the party to endorse a Yes vote narrowly failed to win a two-thirds majority. A subsequent motion endorsing a No vote also failed, by a long way, to get the necessary numbers and the party ended up taking no position, leaving individual members free to do as they chose.

However, given the huge importance of Nama and the depth of feeling involved, that would hardly prove to be a satisfactory outcome for either the leadership or the Nama-sceptics. But, at least until the motion or motions to be put to the convention become public knowledge, this is all in the realm of speculation. "We are in uncharted territory. It's impossible to predict the outcome," one senior party figure said.

Whatever the outcome, there is no question that simmering below the surface is unhappiness among the Green grassroots, not so much with the leadership per se – members are anxious to stress their admiration for John Gormley and Eamon Ryan –but with the decisions they are taking, or being forced to take, in government. Ryan's strong defence of Nama has particularly upset members and some plain speaking can be expected at the convention which is likely to be held on one of the first two Saturdays in September.

With this convention likely to come too early for any meaningful debate on the re-negotiation of the programme for government, there is also the very strong likelihood of a second convention a month or so later to endorse any deal struck in those negotiations. The Nama-sceptics strongly deny the obvious accusation of government by convention. "We've been in government for two-and-a-half years and it [a convention] hasn't happened before despite some incredibly tough decisions. Nama is a €20bn question and that's why we're doing it," one party member countered.

But while the Green commitment to democracy is hugely admirable, it is not particularly conducive to the kind of stability required by a government facing into some of the toughest decisions ever taken by any administration since the foundation of the state.

Then of course there is the possibility that the Green leadership will decide that it cannot live with the cutbacks being proposed in the estimates process or that the only way of securing the party's future is to find an issue on which to pull out of government that will resonate with the voters. Everything about the Greens in government up to now suggests that will not happen, but the worry in Fianna Fáil is that the local elections wipe-out may have changed everything – and not just for the Greens but also the Fianna Fáil backbenchers.

Jittery

"It's going to be very difficult. Everyone is very jittery," one senior government figure looking ahead to the December budget told the Sunday Tribune last week.

Privately ministers accept that the odds on the government making it to the end of the year are only 50-50. "Unemployment will continue to rise, the credit situation at the banks is unlikely to improve quickly and then there are these controversial €3bn in cuts," one senior source said. Nor are they taking much solace from the early signs of the economic recovery in Europe and the US, noting it will take some time before the public will be able to see the tangible evidence of any recovery.

On a more positive note, ministers believe if they can survive past the budget then the coalition should be able to see out its five-year term and that, assuming the global recovery proves real, subsequent budgets may not need to be quite so savage.

But for now Christmas seems a long way away with a lot of hurdles to overcome. In the coming weeks at least, the only 'green shoots' Fianna Fáil will be focusing on will be those coming from the grassroots of its coalition partner.