Late swing to No vote on Lisbon worries main parties

Research by Yes campaign shows majority of voters back treaty but are open to persuasion

Shane Coleman, Political Editor

The Vote No campaign: not prepared to be turned

THE potential for a significant late swing to the No side in the upcoming Lisbon referendum has been found in private focus group research which shows that the passing of the EU treaty is far from guaranteed.

The research, carried out by elements of the Yes campaign, confirms recent opinion polls that show a comfortable majority of voters backing the treaty.

But it also shows that a "significant percentage" of the Yes vote is soft and could be persuaded to switch sides in the final weeks of the campaign.

"There is a very substantial Yes vote and there is a less substantial No vote but when you drill into those figures, the No vote is much more solid and less prepared to be turned. The research shows a significant number of voters on the Yes side that could be termed soft Yes voters," said one campaigner for the treaty.

There is concern among some elements of the Yes campaign that complacency has started to creep in as to the outcome of the referendum on 2 October.

"The idea that this is going to be a routine victory for the Yes side is a dangerous delusion. There is a presumption in parts of government that we are going to coast this," one senior figure on the Yes side told the Sunday Tribune.

And while there is an acceptance that the campaign will not begin in earnest until September, some on the Yes side are worried by what they see as a "lack of engagement" and fear they could be "sleep walking" to another defeat.

"It would be wrong to say it's currently a tight race. It's not. The referendum is definitely winnable – the research shows that. But it's not a certainty. It's not a done deal. It will require more positive campaigning, not slagging off the No side. The fear factor alone won't work and we need a lot more energy in the Yes campaign. People who voted No last time [but are looking to vote Yes in October] will be angry if they think their vote is being taken for granted," the senior Yes figure said.

Yes campaigners say there has been "an inexorable increase" in distrust of Europe in Ireland. There is a rock solid 35% who will vote No on any EU referendum, made up of a mix of left-wing voters who believe the EU has fostered a neo-liberal agenda and conservatives who believe Brussels has had a negative impact on Irish society.

The research shows that the percentage of people who will definitely vote Yes is slightly higher than the 35% core No vote, but there is a further 25% of the electorate who, the research shows, could be persuaded to change their minds on the issue.

While a majority of that 25% are currently planning to vote Yes, "the potential is there for people to shift from the Yes camp," a source who has studied the research warned.

August 16, 2009

Comments

#1 Brian O'Donnell commented, on August 16, 2009 at 8:09 p.m.:

Good news. The economic case for Lisbon is weak. Since Spain voted yes to the EU Constitution, unemployment has doubled to 18%. So much for the argument linking our 'reputation (with the elites) to the fate of the economy. There are already green shoots, including the 9.3% rise in industrial output in April-June this year (compared to a fall of 0.6% in the Eurozone), and the rise in exports of 5% in the year up to April 2009. We don't need Lisbon. We do need to get rid of Cowen though, and the way things are looking, another no vote would achieve that.

#2 Liam Nugent commented, on August 17, 2009 at 1:38 a.m.:

Whatever one's opinon of the Lisbon Treaty, It's more than a little dubious to link Spain's vote for the Lisbon Treaty to an increase in that country's unemployment. There are plenty of credible arguements to be found on both sides.

#3 Francis Codjoe commented, on August 17, 2009 at 10:37 a.m.:

It was not accidental that the Irish rejected the Lisbon Treaty in 2008. They unconsciouly heeded the advice of the "Seer of Dublin". This man wrote about EU - how it would develop, its charcter and future prospects even before the French Founding fathers of EU, Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman - were born in 1888 and 1886. The Irish must first examine the works of the "Seer" before voting on lisbon.

#4 Diarmuid commented, on August 17, 2009 at 2:43 p.m.:

"Since Spain voted yes to the EU Constitution, unemployment has doubled to 18%."

Welcome to the quality arguments put forward by the No Campaign.

Two can play at this: Since Ireland voted No to Lisbon, Ireland's unemployment figures have gone from 7% to 12%

#5 Ian Walsh commented, on August 17, 2009 at 4:48 p.m.:

I voted no the last time and I will vote no again. I've done a lot of research on this document and tried to understand it as best I can. It's extremely complex. I seen a recent poll saying 60% of people now understand the treaty! I had a good laugh at that. The last campaign by the yes side merely said this treaty was to streamline decision making in the EU and therefore is good for Ireland. Now we are recession bound we have the scare mongers of the yes side coming on board saying the treaty will significantly help us come out of this recession, its about our place in Europe, etc. If this is the case, why don't we put a little sentence on the ballot paper asking the Irish people if they want to remain in the EU, it will be a resounding Yes. Us Irish know all to well how fantastic the EU has been for this country. But we don't have to accept every treaty. We were asked our decision on this Treaty in June 2008, but the EU and this government didn't like the answer they got. The Treaty should have been dead. But the political elite in Europe told each other's respective governments to plow on and ratify the treaty regardless of the Irish vote. This in itself shows complete disregard for the sovereign Irish nation and its electorate. This country achieved massive economic success before the Lisbon Treaty, why are they telling us we need Lisbon to bring it back? No doubt the scare tactics will be rife on both sides of the arguement, for and against. However, I will make my own mind up, as I already have done. I refuse to put in place a self ammending treaty. People will say I am anti europe, because on this occasion I disagree with this treaty. I am far from being anti-europe,I just don't like the direction the EU is taking and it's my democratic right to vote how I wish.

#6 JD commented, on August 17, 2009 at 4:56 p.m.:

The treaty is EXACTLY the same one we voted NO to before, after careful consideration.

NO TO LISBON MEANS NO TO LISBON!
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid...

#7 Gary commented, on August 17, 2009 at 5:51 p.m.:

Since Ireland voted no on the last Lisbon treaty our unemployment rate has gone from 4 to almost 15%.

We'll all be on permanent holidays if we vote No again, wouldn't that be great.

#8 Fred Simpson commented, on August 17, 2009 at 8:10 p.m.:

well...I suppose that is the problem with guilt-trips....they only last so long, and then they start wearing off....time for RTE-Pravda to issue more warnings about us being on the periphery....of course this means when it comes to decision making, and we are talking about our politicians being on the periphery.....
Keeping our politicians on the periphery of Europe would in the interests of Europe, and would be the best thing that we could do for Europe. Look at the mess they made of this country. We seem to have a tradition of sending wasters to the EU institutions.....Of course we are not the only offenders in this regard. Europe took a wrong turn after Maastricht and is full of nonsense.

#9 Michael O Connor commented, on August 17, 2009 at 9:23 p.m.:

5. Lack of trust
I am having difficulty placing my trust in an organisation that appears to strive for fairness and equality across the eurozone but on closer investigation we find that the organisation has been cooking the books for at least 13 years last time i checked

6. Government endorsement
First they endorsed it when they hadn't read the thing now they're fully behind it. Why would you trust any government that recommends policy without even reading policy documents. Is the EU working for the people are are the governments just securing their 'retirement' on the political gravy train?

7. EU President
I'm hearing that Tony Blair may be put forward for EU President. I have a bitter taste in my mouth on this one. The same guy who supported the invasion of Iraq with Bush and co, allowed falsified 'evidence' as a justification to invade and is being pursued as a war criminal in the Hague could be made president and be given a voice to speak for all of Europe. How can I vote this guy out? Is it even possible?

8. Status Quo
I am pro european (shock). I would consider myself more Berlin than Boston BUT I am also quite happy with the status quo - a United Europe centered around economic policy and free trade. The political posturing that now seems to be occurring is something we really don't need. I am quite happy with our own constitution and I don't need a new charter of fundamental rights.

9. Referendum on the current government
Although this isn't my reason I can see many Irish using Lisbon II to give the current government another kicking. Now logic dictates that you should separate out anger for the government with any reactionary vote, especially one as important as Lisbon however I'm happy to let the irish public exercise their anger in the form of a No vote especially since we won't get another chance.

#10 Michael O Connor commented, on August 17, 2009 at 9:23 p.m.:

I'm sure there's lots of other reasons I can't think of but the above sums up my position on Lisbon. In contrast the reasons for voting Yes appear to be

a. If we vote no we'll no longer be at the 'heart of europe' which will lead to US MNCs pulling out.
b. If we vote no the EU won't be our 'friends' and we'll get less financial support
c. If we vote yes the EU will be more efficient

Refutes
a. US MNCs are here for one reason alone - our corp tax rate. We lose the ability to control this or become uncompetitive we lose
the MNC
b. The ECB are supplementing us at present. If we vote yes how long with this continue for? Months? Years? What happens when
Germany realises? This is not an incentive to vote yes. We need to resolve our own problems here.
c. Simply put, I don't care, given all the negatives above.

#11 Padraic commented, on August 19, 2009 at 12:44 a.m.:

The people already voted NO and now must vote again and it's obvious that the Government have used scare tactics to try reverse the previous decision.
My gut feeling is the YES vote will win this time but only just.
Now nevermind what state Spain has got itself into that's just smoke and mirrors.
Let's just focus on Ireland.
A lot of people don't understand the Treaty despite all the advice from the experts. So it's been painted up as a vote for the EEC. Ireland needs the EEC as it's had its more share of the benefits in the past than other member states.
But I think all that is about to change as other more needy nations are about to come to the table.
So you see this Treaty is a no win situation but opting out as a slap in the face to gormless Cowan would only lead to more hardship. So the PIGS with much grunting and panting need to get on board as a YES vote will just about to win the day...

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