CHUCK Norris and Irish politics are not generally mentioned in the same sentence, but the government seems to have taken the action hero's line 'fail to prepare, prepare to fail' very much to heart. Five cabinet meetings last week, and more to follow over the next nine days, is proof positive that by the time Brian Lenihan delivers his mini-budget speech, every line of it will have been pored over, dissected and debated to the nth degree. No budget will have been as closely proofed for economic and political considerations. Then again, no budget has ever involved such high stakes. "It's the last throw of the dice, both for us and the country," was the blunt assessment of one government TD this weekend. "The view is 'either, we get this right or we're gone'."

Sunday

Sunday, the traditional day of rest for politicians, was forsaken as the cabinet gathered at 10.30am for a four-hour meeting. The key issue around the table was what level of deficit the government should choose, which by extension determines how much the government will have to raise in taxes, cutbacks and borrowing. A consensus seemed to be building in the media that the total package of cuts and new taxes would have to be in the region of €6bn. Initially, this seemed to be borne out by comments by agriculture minister Brendan Smith in a pre-recorded interview with RTÉ's The Week in Politics. However, when RTÉ reported the story on its 5pm radio news bulletins, alarm bells began ringing in Government Buildings. By the time RTÉ One's Six-One News was going out, the station pointed out it had been contacted by Smith to say he had not intended to be specific about the figures and that negotiations were still at an early stage.

Monday

The following day (a rare cabinet free-day), the €6bn figure appeared to receive further confirmation when Green Party leader John Gormley insisted the government would adhere to the commitment given to European Commission that the state's budget deficit would not exceed 9.5%. "We are sticking to the 9.5%. There's no question about that."

Tuesday

The issue was teased out further at Tuesday's cabinet meeting. And the first hint of a slight shift in government thinking came when Lenihan's hugely influential new economic advisor, NUIG academic Dr Alan Ahearne, addressed the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party that evening. He said the government shouldn't get hung up on the 9.5% figure for this year as the most important thing was restoring order to the public finances over the next few years.

Ahearne expressed concern – shared by the entire cabinet – that if the medicine delivered by the government to the economy was too tough, too early, it could end up killing the patient.

According to one government source, "We have to make a very significant start [in the mini-budget]. If we don't, the markets won't believe us. But we don't want to banjax the economy. The markets wouldn't be impressed by that... we can't go chasing a moving target downwards."

While the shift in thinking was mainly influenced by economic considerations, politically ministers are relieved that the pain will be closer to €4bn than €6bn. There will be pain, considerable pain, but perhaps not as much as might have been expected a week ago.

In his address to the weekly Fianna Fáil parliamentary meeting, Ahearne also told TDs and senators Ireland cannot afford a stimulus package and that its main objective should be to address the serious structural deficits.

This is telling in relation to how ministers are thinking, because by now, ministers' attention had shifted from the actual budget deficit to the 'structural' deficit. In layman's terms, that is effectively the part of the deficit the government has to address and which cannot be fixed by a rise in global economic activity. Ministers received conflicting advice on the issue when the Central Bank last week put the structural deficit at around 9%, but the ESRI went for a more optimistic 6% figure. The belief in government was that the answer lay somewhere in between those figures. That is expected to guide its thinking in all of the decisions to be made in the upcoming mini-budget and future budgets.

Later that day, the government received some good news when the European Commission gave Ireland until 2013 to get its budget deficit back below the limit allowed under the rules of the EU's stability and growth pact.

Wednesday

With the broad budget arithmetic essentially agreed, the cabinet got down to the business of deciding what tax increases and cutbacks would be chosen to work back to a budget deficit that is now expected to be between 10% and 11%.

The tortuous business of going through the budget options "line-by-line" really began. Mary Hanafin, who presides over the biggest-spending government department, Social and Family Affairs, presented a number of position papers to the cabinet about the removal of the ceiling on PRSI. If the ceiling is removed, it could cost higher-paid workers earning over €52,000 hundreds of euro annually in extra payments, yielding some €223m in additional income for the exchequer in a full year.

This potential yield, from a measure which would not be uncontroversial, serves only to emphasise the magnitude of the challenge facing the cabinet. It must come up with ways of raising almost 20 times that amount of money before Tuesday week. Despite this, sources say there is no evidence of the tensions that existed around the cabinet table before last October's budget and there is "a realisation about what has to be done".

Thursday

Speaking on RTE radio's Morning Ireland, Lenihan said the government would strive to draw "a balance between protecting jobs and the economy, and ensuring that Ireland's solvency and position in relation to borrowing is credible" in the budget. It was yet another hint that the budget will not be a traditional bookkeeping exercise and will involve a package of economic, budgetary and financial measures.

He said the wealthy would have to pay the most when it came to tax changes in the budget and he would place an emphasis on "fairness and equity". But significantly, he also stressed his belief that everybody should pay tax – suggesting the 40% of low earners, currently paying no tax, will be expected to contribute something after 7 April.

Later in the day, Lenihan indicated the government had decided to restrict recruitment throughout the public sector – further evidence the €20bn public sector pay bill remains in the cabinet's sights despite the introduction of the pension levy. If further proof of the size of the task facing the government was needed, it came when Lenihan disclosed the projected tax take for the coming year had dropped another €3bn to €34bn.

Friday

After a gruelling week, the ministerial cars slipped out of government buildings in the afternoon after yet another "brisk, business-like and totally focused" cabinet meeting. Ministers left with plenty to consider over the weekend. Even after five get-togethers, ministers still have to agree how the €3bn to €4bn package of tax increases and cutbacks will be divided. Though the meetings had been free of any tension or rancour, the debate has, in the words of one senior figure, been "full and frank" particularly on this issue. Ministers such as Micheál Martin argued the balance should be tilted against cutbacks, but others warned going too heavy on tax increases could damage the economy. The smart money is that around 60% of the package will come from tax increases, with cutbacks making up the remaining 40%.

Others issues that have been kicked around by ministers – including the possibility of a new third rate of income tax aimed at those earning €250,000-plus – will have to be firmed up in the coming days. However, it seems a decision has been made to call a halt for now on the National Development Plan. Projects that have been signed-off will proceed but no new projects will be given the go-ahead for the foreseeable future. Agreement also seems to have been reached in principle that, on budget day, the government will announce the creation of a new agency to take over the bad property loans from the banks.

By the time the ministers get together again today, the Department of Finance should be in a position to make a call on the exchequer figures for March. The figures are unlikely to be good. But despite that, there is an extremely cautious whiff of optimism among ministers that they can deliver a budget in nine days to a sceptical and angry electorate that is just on the right side of acceptable.

"Cowen is more relaxed and more in control. He is calmer than he has been," one government TD claimed this weekend. "There is a new-found sense of direction". They are going to need it.