Lisbon 2 has been the foreign affairs minister's baby for the past 16 months. After the initial defeat, his department commissioned research into the reasons why Ireland said 'No'. Then he sought legal guarantees from the EU before deciding to forge ahead with a second referendum. While the dire economic situation was undoubtedly the key motivation for yesterday's 'Yes' vote, Martin and junior minister Dick Roche have both emerged as winners for leading the successful campaign.
Figures from the corporate world including Ryanair chief Michael O'Leary, Microsoft managing director Paul Rellis and Intel vice-president Jim O'Hara had a shared message during the campaign – 'Vote Yes because it's the economy stupid!' O'Hara even went so far as to say that a 'No' vote would be "committing economic suicide" so ratification has come as a welcome victory for a corporate Ireland that is otherwise struggling to keep its head above water.
Fine Gael and Labour put the 'national interest' in front of internal politics during the campaign and resisting the temptation to make this a referendum about Cowen's leadership. Fine Gael's 'Yes to Europe' slogan seemed to resonate with the public so the party must be content with its campaign. Had Lisbon fallen yesterday, Kenny could have found himself as the new Taoiseach having to run an Ireland Inc that had just been relegated to the backwaters in a two-tier Europe.
Were in the government's bad books after the first Lisbon referendum campaign for their posturing over supporting the 'Yes' campaign. The IFA threatened to endorse a 'No' vote on the back of a grievance they had over the World Trade Organisation talks, which had nothing to do with Lisbon. They eventually supported the 'Yes' side but their delay did not help the 'Yes' campaign. This time around, the IFA was one of the first interest groups to come out and back the 'Yes' side from early on. As supporters of the 'Yes' side, the IFA has now strengthened its hand ahead of any future negotiations with the EU.
The former president of the European Parliament's Europe pro-Lisbon group, which had Professor Brigid Laffan on board, added intellectual weight to the 'Yes' side. After catapulting himself back into the limelight, Cox is now the bookies' 11-10 favourite to be Ireland's next EU Commissioner. Cowen cannot afford to give the job to a Fianna Fáil TD as the EU arithmetic is simply too tight. This helps Cox's hopes. Watch this space.
David Bowie famously sang that "We can be heroes, just for one day". Cowen's 18 months as taoiseach have been dogged by crisis and controversy. But today Cowen is a winner, even if it is just for one day. With next Saturday's crunch Green meeting and the toughest budget in the history of the state on the horizon, Cowen will not be basking in victory for too long, but this result does mark a rare bright day in his troubled role as Taoiseach.
After she failed to get elected to the Dáil in the 2007 general election, many people within Sinn Féin thought that McDonald had resurrected her political fortunes after the first Lisbon vote last year. However Sinn Féin's golden girl has lost her sparkle as she lost her MEP seat in June and did little to halt the slide towards the 'Yes' side in Lisbon 2. Questions must be asked about the Sinn Féin gamble to stick with the 'No' side. Lisbon's defeat has left McDonald without a platform, at least until the next election.
The leader of the Libertas group must be thinking that his decision to enter the Lisbon 2 campaign late was a bad idea. He made little impact on the campaign and he failed to emerge as the credible voice of the 'No' side in the same way he did during Lisbon 1. Comparing himself to William Wallace in Braveheart during an interview with the London Times, Ganley said of the 'Yes' side that he would "impale the bastards on their own argument". This didn't happen. In keeping with his Braveheart metaphor, this was more Culloden than Bannockburn.
The UK Independence Party (UKIP) was given a historic label during the campaign. Micheál Martin accused them of using the most cynical tactics in the history of the country. He said that a UKIP leaflet that was due to be distributed to over one million Irish homes was the "nastiest, most deceptive piece of literature ever distributed in an Irish referendum." The Eurosceptic group's claims that 75 million Turks will get free movement within the EU if Lisbon is passed and tens of thousands of Irish people will have their wages lowered were treated with disdain.
The chairwoman of the People's Movement cut a marginal figure throughout. The Green Party she was so long associated with is holding one of the most important meetings in its history next weekend. At a similar meeting in the Mansion House in 2007, McKenna was the voice of dissent against the Greens getting into bed with Fianna Fáil. Two years on, McKenna will be on the outside looking in. Not a good place to be in politics.
Who? Exactly. A group calling themselves 'Farmers for No' emerged during the campaign but made little impact. Their spokesman David Thompson called on a 'No' vote "to bring down our incompetent taoiseach Brian Cowen". Even Labour and Fine Gael, who have the most obvious vested interest in seeing Cowen fall, were politically mature enough not to come out with such a claim. Farmers for No duly crashed and burned.
Socialist party MEP Joe Higgins may have been on the losing side yesterday but he did emerge as the most credible and authentic of the 'No' campaigners. You cannot doubt his passion and conviction.
Had the most effective poster campaign. The 'Yes' side quickly moved to prove that the message on the organisation's posters were disingenuous but the posters were the most talked about. Who would have thought that a convoluted suggestion that the minimum wage would fall to just €1.84 could cause such a stir? The group was discredited a lot in recent weeks but they maintained a high profile throughout.
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