Mortgages: high risk of defaults

More than a quarter of Irish households say there is a "high to moderate risk" that they will fall behind with their mortgage or rent payments over the next 12 months, according to an EU survey on the impact of the financial crisis.


In an already dismal week for the country's banks and building societies, in which the state had to take over €16.5bn of their toxic debts in order to keep them afloat, one in 12 Irish people (8%) said there was a "high risk" they would default on their mortgage and 18% said there was a "moderate" risk'.


A further 21% said there was a "low risk" of defaulting while 34% said there was "no risk at all".


As the remaining 19% said that the question was "not applicable" – indicating that they no longer had a mortgage on their house – it means that more householders say there is some risk of defaulting on their mortgage/rent in the year ahead than those who profess no such worries.


This is above the EU average of potential defaulters and well ahead of our western European colleagues in the original EU 15 states. Only householders in Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Estonia indicate a higher risk of defaulting on their loans.


And the EU survey also showed that an even higher proportion (29%) said there is a "high to moderate risk" they will fall behind repaying small bank loans taken out to buy items such as electrical appliances and furniture.


A further 16% said there was "low risk" this would happen and 38% said there was no risk at all which again leaves a majority fearing they will not be able to keep up payments on small loans in the coming year.


A startling one in three claim they will not even be able to pay ordinary bills or buy food or daily consumer items. Again, one in 12 (8%) say there is a "high risk" of not being able to pay these and 24% say it is a "moderate risk". A further 24% say there is a "low risk" of this happening while 42% say there is "no risk at all".


Overall, the Irish are among the most pessimistic of Europeans with almost half (48%) fearing that their household financial situation will worsen over the next 12 months, more than twice the EU average of 22%.


Another 39% think it will be "the same" while just 12% think it will improve.


This puts Ireland third most pessimistic about the outlook, behind Lithuania and Latvia.


Even the Greeks, whose country had to be rescued from the brink of bankruptcy by the EU last week, are more optimistic than we are with only 34% believing things will get worse over the next year.