Fianna Fáil

Set to take a hammering in the next general election. The extent of that hammering will do a lot to determine the future of the party that has been the most dominant throughout the history of the state.

Fine Gael has never been in power for two consecutive government terms, so even though the next election looks lost, a revival of Fianna Fáil afterwards cannot be ruled out.

The next two years will be crucial in that regard. If Fianna Fáil manages to stay in government and oversee an improvement in the public finances and the economy, this should limit seat losses and allow a strong presence on the opposition benches.

But the fact that it has been overtaken as the biggest party by Fine Gael is hugely ominous for Fianna Fáil, especially with the dilution in party loyalties and expected further increases in the number of floating voters by 2020.

Fine Gael

Consistently the biggest political party in the country in opinion polls for the last year or more and with government looking a certainty after the next election, the future looks bright for Fine Gael.

But will it keep its current position as the biggest party or, as in the past, merely go into government for one-term while Fianna Fáil regroups to return for another long period at the helm?

That will be a challenge for Enda Kenny but also for Fine Gael's young turks. It will be up to the likes of Varadkar, Hayes, D'Arcy, O'Donnell, Enright, Creighton, Coveney and their peers to ensure history does not repeat itself. Could become more centre-right under Varadkar's leadership.

Labour

WILL the '20s be socialist? There is no question that Labour has made serious strides in recent years, growing its number of councillors and performing strongly in opinion polls since 2007. But the big question is whether the party can make the jump beyond its Dublin, middle-class heartlands and build a real presence in places such as Donegal, Mayo, Roscommon, Clare, Louth, Laois and Offaly. Until it does, talk of a Labour Taoiseach is entirely fanciful. The party is pretty much guaranteed to be in government after the next general election. But if it is to become a genuine third force – as opposed to being the half in a two-and-a-half-party system – then it will have to produce the goods in that government. It cannot afford a repeat of the hamstrung Fine Gael-Labour coalition of 1982-87, so that might mean managing expectations while it is still in opposition. The good news is the party has at last started to bring through some new talent, not least in Cork East deputy Seán Sherlock (above), who might well be Labour leader in 2020.

The Green Party

The Green Party is in PD territory in the opinion polls. None of the party's six seats are safe and on a bad day, the Greens could face a wipe-out.

So if the immediate future looks so bleak, the question arises: will the Green Party exist in 2020?

Parallels are often drawn with the PDs, as the Greens are a niche party at rock bottom in the polls. The PDs were in that same dark place before they called it a day.

But there is one key fundamental difference between the Greens and the PDs. Unlike the PDs, the Greens are part of a movement that has a strong presence across Europe and further afield.

Even if John Gormley and his colleagues are voted off the national stage in the next general election, there should still be a place for Green politics in 2020.

However, the number of TDs that the Greens have in 2020 may well be decided by global warming. The bigger it is an issue, the more likely people are to vote for the Greens. Can a meltdown in the arctic prevent a meltdown of the Greens?

Sinn Féin

Will their day have come by 2020? Four or five years ago, that would have seemed a ridiculous question. But now the answer is only a maybe. The way the polls are shaping up, Fine Gael and Labour won't need them for the next government and the party has a lot of work to do to repair the damage caused by defections, particularly in Dublin.

But if Sinn Féin is anything it is patient and at least, at a steady 8-10% in the polls, the party has a base to build on. The trick will be in focusing on a few target seats that are winnable.

Gerry Adams won't be leader by 2020 (presumably) but part of the problem for the party is that no obvious successor has emerged from the south as was the game plan. Mary Lou McDonald has the ability but unless she can get elected to the Dáil, her career can't progress. The same holds for the other bright young hopes Padraig MacLochlainn and Pearse Doherty.

A.N Another

Could the next decade throw up a new party in the mould of the PDs or Clann na Poblachta? On one hand, given the public disaffection with politics, it would seem like fertile territory. But it's very doubtful as to what niche a new party would fill. In the 1980s, none of the main parties seemed overly committed to control of the public finances, reducing state involvement or cutting high rates of personal tax, so there was a very obvious gap in the market for the incoming PDs.

That doesn't exist today. With politics very much in the centre, the obvious gap is for a strong left-wing organisation, but the traditional weakness of the left in Ireland suggests that there is limited potential for that also.