In a Critical Moment of the World Cup Final, Who Would You Choose?
Lionel Messi remains the top choice for crucial moments. Even at the age of 39, exemplified by his dramatic performance against Egypt, Argentina’s star showcases remarkable talent. Although his record of four penalties converted out of eight might not meet all expectations, he excels when it truly matters.
While a cold Stoke night might sway my choice to Erling Haaland, my vote in this World Cup goes to Messi. His play has shown a sense of inevitability, scoring in each of Argentina’s initial five matches, making it hard to overlook his ability to maintain that momentum on the grandest stage.
Erling Haaland presents impressive statistics with an average of one goal for every 14 touches during this tournament. Leading all players with at least ten attempts, he boasts a shot accuracy of 38.9%. For those seeking the most spectacular goals, Messi is the prime candidate. However, for those favoring the highest likelihood of scoring, Haaland deserves strong support.
Currently, Kylian Mbappé is at the forefront of my selection. Both he and Messi possess a distinctive talent for significantly impacting games. Yet, with the tournament stretching into its eighth match, I find myself leaning towards the younger striker.
There’s an undeniable energy surrounding Argentina; Messi’s influence inspires his teammates to elevate their performances in pivotal moments. His effectiveness remains formidable.
Messi is certainly the go-to option. Despite advancing age, he still possesses the ability to alter match outcomes in an instant. While his overall performance against Egypt in the last 16 was subdued, he made a breathtaking impact with a half-volley.
Is it fair to say it depends on the nature of the opportunity? I wouldn’t select Messi for a penalty or a header, but in all other scenarios, he’s undoubtedly my choice. His ability to operate at a different pace than others, simplifying complex situations for results, distinguishes him.
Notable Absences from the Quarter-Finals
The exit of all three host nations in the last 16 was disappointing, yet many viewed Japan as a potential underdog. They showcased their abilities in a thrilling opening match against the Netherlands and nearly upset Brazil in the last 32. A more favorable draw could have seen them advance to the last eight.
Colombia stands out as a missed opportunity. Their captivating performances during the group stages left me thinking, “Wow, this team could win a World Cup” especially after their goalless draw against Portugal. Opportunities arose during their knockout matches against Ghana and a weakened Switzerland side, but a lack of risk led to an early exit. I will sorely miss their passionate fans; a matchup against Argentina in Kansas City would have been a spectacle.
Several African teams, including Cape Verde, Senegal, DR Congo, Egypt, and Côte d’Ivoire, were exciting to watch. The USA also had potential if they could recapture their early tournament form. However, Mexico would have undoubtedly provided thrilling encounters in the knockout stages.
It certainly isn’t the USA that I miss. I would choose the Netherlands. They never reached their full potential, and their cautious approach against Morocco proved costly. The tournament feels less vibrant without their rich history and dynamic style still in contention.
Is it inappropriate to simply mention any of the co-hosts? Each tournament feels different once the home team is eliminated; a group of teams playing in front of boisterous crowds holds tremendous power.
Sadly, I must say the Netherlands. I never fully trusted this squad due to their odd mix of elite defenders and a shortage of strikers. Ronald Koeman didn’t inspire confidence in his adaptability during challenging situations. Their match against Morocco reflected their struggles; even though it went to penalties, they appeared to be on the back foot. They likely would have advanced past Canada had they progressed.
Senegal remains the biggest disappointment. A difficult group seemed to shake their confidence, and they outperformed Belgium in their last-32 match, only to squander a two-goal lead with five minutes remaining. While Belgium’s advancement is commendable, Senegal appeared to be the stronger side for most of that contest.
Potential Dark Horses for the Title
Morocco has captured attention under the leadership of Mohamed Ouahbi, building on their prior semi-final appearance before being ousted by France. Don’t overlook their quest for revenge in their upcoming match.
Identifying a dark horse among the last eight is challenging, but I lean towards Switzerland. Goalkeeper Gregor Kobel has made 16 saves and allowed only three goals, averaging 0.6 per match—outperforming all but Spain and France. Considering favorites like Spain, France, England, and Argentina, Switzerland boasts the best expected goals difference (4.9) among the underdogs. Their defensive strength is proven; the question remains whether they can convert scoring opportunities.
Of the top eight teams in FIFA’s rankings, six have reached the quarter-finals; the exceptions being Switzerland (14th) and Norway (19th). Switzerland has had a smooth path to this stage and shows no signs of faltering, leaving Norway as the default dark horse. If any top-eight team fits that description, Belgium deserves consideration; they showcased tactical brilliance in dismantling the USA.
Norway may not be among the favorites, but their sensational striker is achieving remarkable goal-scoring rates. Haaland has netted 27 goals in his last 14 competitive matches, becoming the first player since Gerd Müller 56 years ago to score at least seven times in his first four World Cup outings. That’s enough to sway even the most skeptical observers.
Perhaps Zohran Mamdani was correct about this Moroccan squad. They appear significantly improved from their semi-final run in 2022, transitioning from underdog status to a team capable of controlling matches. Their victory over the Netherlands was impressive, and they are expected to welcome back Ismael Saibari after his injury against Canada.
Is Norway merely a moderate surprise now? This team is intriguing, viewed as a dark horse primarily due to their absence from past World Cups. They are riding a wave of momentum, winning even when not at their peak. If they can overcome England, I’d give them a shot against Argentina in the semi-finals.
Switzerland often advances further in tournaments than expected; they possess an enigmatic quality that defies thorough analysis. Their defense is sturdy. Argentina can’t maintain their emotional intensity indefinitely, and if they falter, they could become vulnerable against a familiar European opponent in the final.
Key Player in the Tournament
This tournament has seen the rise of superstars, with Messi defying age, Mbappé exhibiting unmatched talent, and Harry Kane continuing his excellent form from Bayern Munich. However, Haaland’s confidence after eliminating Brazil makes him a compelling figure. England should tread carefully.
Kane is crucial. Without his goal against Panama, England may not have topped Group L. His brace against DR Congo in Atlanta was vital for their progression, and his penalty and assist in the last 16 were instrumental in overcoming Mexico. He is undeniably their most critical player.
It may seem obvious, but Messi is irreplaceable. Contributing to 70% of Argentina’s goals, many of which are incredibly challenging, he has truly carried this team.
It’s easy to overthink this, yet it remains Messi. Argentina is a formidable team, yet he represents the difference between being “repeat World Cup champions” and “World Cup champions.” The Albiceleste can withstand a poor performance because they know their star only needs one moment to change the game.
Norway’s destiny appears intertwined with Haaland. Not among the highest-ranked teams left, he could excel against defenders like Marc Guéhi and Ezri Konsa, and later likely against Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero. The journey to the final could become a lucrative week for Manchester City.
Michael Olise may not have been at his peak against Paraguay in the last 16, but France is unlikely to encounter a similar level of defensive indifference again.
Messi is the game-changer. If Argentina stays competitive, he can secure victories. A youth coach once noted moments when he “gets the face on,” as he did in the closing stages against Egypt. Once that happens, he becomes nearly untouchable.
Thomas Tuchel has gained significant credit for England’s gritty win in Mexico City, remaining the only manager left with a Champions League title. Yet, Didier Deschamps possesses unparalleled World Cup experience.
Deschamps. In his concluding stretch with France, he has permitted the stars to shine rather than imposing a rigid strategy. This approach has benefited their attacking trio of Mbappé, Olise, and Dembélé, rendering Les Bleus not only the most formidable team in this World Cup but also one of the most entertaining.
Belgium’s Rudi Garcia successfully outmaneuvered Mauricio Pochettino, crafting a strategy that neutralized a formidable US side.
Luis de la Fuente. Spain’s talent is evident, but their mutual trust is the true narrative. Each player is committed to a collective effort: pressing together, defending together, sharing responsibilities, and allowing the ball to dictate play.
With apologies to Thomas Tuchel, De la Fuente’s ability to cultivate unity among his Spain players is quite rare. Their cohesive strategy enables them to navigate challenging moments, as evidenced against Portugal, albeit a standout striker would elevate their chances.
Mohamed Ouahbi merits recognition. Transitioning from a youth coach to Morocco’s head coach just four months ago, his strategic acumen has allowed a team with many new faces since their semi-final run in 2022 to flourish. Each match has unfolded as intended, although facing France in the quarter-finals presents a significant challenge.
Thomas Tuchel. While he may face criticism for his initial setups, his in-game adjustments have profoundly influenced results—contrary to his predecessor Gareth Southgate.
Predictions for the Semi-Finals
France will face Spain; England will meet Argentina.
France will clash with Spain; England will take on Argentina.
France will battle Spain; Argentina will square off against England.
France will confront Spain; England will go against Switzerland.
France will meet Spain; Norway will challenge Argentina.
France will collide with Spain; Norway will face Argentina.
France will play Spain, and England will take on Argentina.
Predictions for the Champion
Spain 2-1 Argentina. Spain has been consistently impressive despite a draw against Cape Verde in their opener and has displayed solid defense—crucial for potential winners. They may be the only team capable of halting France’s offensive power in the semi-finals, assuming Les Bleus advance past Morocco. England or Norway might feel they have a chance against an Argentina side that has shown defensive vulnerabilities. But with Messi in their ranks, they are never truly out of contention.
Spain 2-1 Argentina. I predicted a Spain-Argentina final before the tournament began, and I still feel confident about it. Regarding Argentina, I anticipate they’ll face England in the semi-finals, and both teams have demonstrated “team of destiny” resilience in their knockout matches—making the outcome dependent on the soccer gods of the day. Spain has given me little reason to doubt them. A common trait among recent World Cup champions is conceding less than one goal per match and achieving clean sheets—Spain has done both. To be fair, they haven’t faced an attack like any of the remaining teams, but they have been effective at grinding out results.
France 3-2 Argentina. The more things change, the more they stay the same. In a tournament where all teams have faced challenges, the 2022 finalists have shown an exceptional ability to win under varying circumstances. Both Mbappé and Messi maintain their formidable prowess. France will seek revenge this time, with Mbappé benefiting from increased support around him.
France 2-2 England (after extra time, 3-4 on penalties). This game is bound to have a sense of humor. While France may be the tournament’s top team, knockout football often transcends pure talent. England has displayed some vulnerabilities, yet they possess depth and experience that could help them navigate tough moments. Penalties have often been the punchline; this time, they may become the resolution.
Spain 2-3 Argentina. Argentina feels like the home team at this tournament following the co-hosts’ elimination, with Messi showcasing his extraordinary skills. Additionally, Lautaro Martínez has been more effective coming off the bench than he was in Qatar.
France 3-1 Argentina. This was my pre-tournament prediction for the final, and I’m sticking with it. However, I doubt it will be a closely contested match. Assuming they’ve beaten Morocco in the quarter-finals and likely Spain in the semis, facing Argentina won’t be as significant a challenge. The Argentine defense, having conceded four goals in the knockout rounds, may struggle against the Mbappé-Dembélé-Olise trio, along with whoever plays on the left wing. Spirit and experience might carry them far, but the firepower of France will be overwhelming in this rematch of the last World Cup final.
France 2-1 England. France’s stellar attack will face Spain’s defense in the semi-finals, but if they emerge victorious and manage to contain Argentina’s emotional surge, they should defeat England in the final. They have improved since their victory over England in Qatar, while England’s defense appears more vulnerable.
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