Argentina’s defense has not consistently reflected the caliber expected of World Cup champions this season. Opponents such as Cape Verde, Egypt, and Jordan have managed to score five goals against them, with clean sheets only achieved against Algeria and Austria.
The fact that relatively lesser teams have breached Lionel Scaloni’s backline should provide motivation for players like Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. However, Argentina’s defensive metrics indicate a stronger underlying performance than the results might suggest. With an average of 0.52 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes, only Spain (0.31) has a better record among the 48 teams.
Given that Argentina has faced the weakest opponents, as ranked by FIFA, they should have conceded fewer chances. Nevertheless, they have excelled in limiting the locations from which those chances arise. Among the semi-finalists, only Uruguay has permitted a higher percentage of shots from outside their penalty area (56%). Colombia shares second place with Argentina at 52%, while Ecuador ranks fifth at 45%. This trend showcases a South American strength during this World Cup.
Argentina shares another noteworthy statistic with Ecuador: both teams have not allowed a single shot within their six-yard box. This metric, although somewhat arbitrary, is important. Deroy Duarte’s goal for Cape Verde against Argentina was struck very close to the edge of the six-yard box, similar to Dan Ndoye’s goal for Switzerland from the opposite side in the quarter-finals. The statistics highlight why this distinction is significant, as shots taken from within the six-yard box have a conversion rate of 27.1%, nearly twice that of attempts from other areas of the penalty box (13.7%).
England struggles with scoring from close range, having recorded only nine shots inside the six-yard box, fewer than Canada (12), Ecuador (11), and Norway (10), let alone Spain (14) or Argentina (10). However, they can leverage set pieces to challenge the reigning champions more effectively. Argentina has allowed just 0.63 expected goals from set plays, with Cape Verde being the only team to earn more than three corners against them.
England has effectively capitalized on set pieces, creating five close-range opportunities. All three of their shots in Croatia’s six-yard box came from corners, with similar chances arising against Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Additionally, Bellingham netted twice in open play from under six yards against Mexico.
As Argentina prepares to face a variety of threats in Atlanta, England’s ability to identify shot locations they have yet to allow could prove crucial.
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