Glambia's John Moloney: will be able to show healthy financial figures

GLAnbia chief executive John Moloney probably thought he would be announcing his last set of interim results of the company in its current form last week. Were it not for the opposition of a couple of dozen farmers to a deal to sell the company's dairy and consumer foods division to its largest shareholder, the Glanbia Co-Operative Society, he would be.


Moloney faces a tough round of questions from investors and analysts on Wednesday about the prospect of rekindling the sale of the business, called Dairy Ireland. A number of factors combined to knock the sale off course, most of them out of the control of the company.


Some of the co-op's members were afraid the price was just too much to pay in return for what they were giving up (the co-op's stake in the company was being reduced substantially to pay for it); some members felt they were assuming too many liabilities in the pension fund and feared the future earnings of the dairy business would be unsustainable. There were even some farmers who resented the merger of the original dairy groups to form Glanbia more than a decade ago and just wanted to scupper the deal out of bloody-mindedness.


Speculation that the company and the co-op could make another attempt to reach an agreement over the €340m sale hasn't diminished over the summer. At the co-op's annual general meeting in June, its members passed a resolution giving the board of the society permission to look at reviving talks with the company.


Food industry analysts believe the rationale for Glanbia divesting the Irish dairy unit was strong six months ago and, if anything, has increased since. As Moloney will spell out at the first-half results, the outlook for the dairy division has improved on the back of a rebound in international commodity prices. According to a trading update from the company in late July, the Dairy Ireland division will return to the black in the first half of the year, after a disastrous 2009 when milk prices were on the floor.


"This business has benefited from a sustained improvement in global dairy markets throughout the first six months of 2010," the company said, adding that a cost- cutting scheme announced earlier in the year was also going to plan.


As part of the takeover process, it emerged that Dairy Ireland could generate earnings of about €70m a year over the next three years. For the co-op, the prospect of gaining control of the milk division must be a tempting opportunity. In recent years, Glanbia's management have helped its milk suppliers with generous prices to cushion them through bad times. Whether it would be prepared (or allowed by its other investors) to do the same again is questionable.


While milk prices have recovered this year, NCB Stockbrokers' analyst Paul Meade said in a research note last week that prices are cooling and trading at Glanbia's Irish consumer food operation remains challenging due to intense competition in the retail sector.


One farmer member of the co-op who contacted the Sunday Tribune in May to voice opposition to the deal because of price says he still believes it makes sense for farmers to take control of milk processing at some point. There was too much potential for both sides to get what they want, he said.


The Irish dairy market has begun the long-awaited move to consolidation. Kerry Group is paying €33m to acquire Cork's Newmarket Co-op and it is expected that this will be the first among many mergers of small milk and cheese producers in Ireland as the European Union finally ends its controversial milk quota system.


Had the co-op succeeded, it would have been in control of the biggest milk pool in Ireland and in a position to dictate the terms of how the country's milk suppliers deal with the changes that are coming.


For the company, the prize is the ability to focus on its overseas operations, which centre on high-margin nutritional foods, such as sports supplements, and its American cheese business.


The biggest hurdle, though, to reigniting the talks between the quoted company and its founding co-op remains the threshold needed to get the farmers to support the transaction.


The management will not give the time and expense (in the last deal, both sides spent €8m on their various financial and legal advisers) without certainty that it will get over the line.


There has been no attempt in the meantime to change the co-op's rules that require 75% of its members, rather than a simple majority, to approve the transaction. The first vote fell just short of the 75% mark, with 73% of the members of the co-op backing the takeover.


Glanbia shares, meanwhile, have remained solid since the disposal of Dairy Ireland fell through, changing hands at around €3.30 last week, a 38% gain in the past year, and just short of the high they touched in April.


The strength of the share prices reflects both the improved profitability and the hope that at some point a deal may emerge.


Moloney and other members of the management team will be able to show investors a much healthier-looking set of financial figures in a few days.


Leaving aside the return to profitability of Dairy Ireland (where sales collapsed by 20% in the first half of 2009 alone), its nutritional foods division, which controls a number of well-known sports supplement brands, was making good headway.


"Demand for US cheese remains robust and markets were higher relative to 2009. Global nutritionals had a very good first half with strong organic growth across all business segments.


Operating margins for global nutritionals remain resilient, particularly in the context of ongoing investment in developing the performance of nutrition brands," it said in its July trading update.


With a better outlook for the overall business, Moloney will be hoping that Glanbia can convince its investors, at least in the short-term, that its various divisions can continue living together.