On the surface, it seems like positive news:?the National Treasury Management Agency's chief executive John Corrigan said that the debt agency could return this year to the sovereign bond markets given a fair wind from abroad.

But the comments are not as upbeat as they would appear. Indeed, one way or another it would have been a surprise if Ireland was not back in the debt markets this year issuing short-term maturities of under two years.

After all, Greece – which many in the debt markets believe is a running certainty to default or restructure its sovereign debts in the next few years – plans to roll over short-term debt later this week by issuing short-term treasury bills. It would always be possible that the NTMA could issue treasury bills.

The chances of Ireland doing something more ambitious by raising say €5bn or €10bn by issuing new bond paper for repayment in two years will of course depend on the cost of the funds.

Last week, the annual interest rate on the existing debt paper for repayment in March next year suggests that the NTMA would need to pay an expensive 5% to borrow for up to two years. The NTMA would probably issue new short-term debt paper if the interest rate fell more.

However the cost of borrowing soars to 6.6% for three years when the existing EU/IMF agreement and other international fundings of the state are due to peter out. For longer-term borrowing for instance, the 9% annual cost for Ireland borrowing for 10 years continues to suggest that potential lenders believe Ireland will need to renegotiate with its lenders. As a result, CMA Datavision calculates a 42.5% probability that Ireland will restructure its debts in the next five years.

Tapping money in the short term is no indicator of growing confidence in the Irish economy. Indeed, the strains on Portugal and other eurozone countries are starting to build this weekend.