SO goodbye and good riddance to 2009. Those of us who lived through the bleak years of the 1980s believed we would never see the likes of them again. How wrong we were, and perhaps that complacency was a factor in the country finding itself in the mess in which we've found ourselves these last 18 months.
Two years ago, double-digit percentage rates of unemployment and budget deficit, emigration, soaring borrowing levels, plummeting property prices and a banking crisis the likes of which this state has never seen before, seemed unthinkable.
Yet that's exactly what we've had to deal with and the sense of shock still hasn't dissipated. Tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs in the past year. Many more are worried about theirs. Negative equity is a fact of life for many young people who are struggling to repay huge mortgages. Public servants have seen their salaries cut by 12 or 13% – a huge sacrifice particularly for those at the lower end of the pay scale – and social welfare recipients have also been hit. A new generation of young adults has yet again been forced to move abroad to find work.
It would be very easy and understandable to feel a sense of despair but 'tis the season to be jolly, so we're going to dig deep and make a list (we might even check it twice) of 10 reasons to be cheerful in the season of hope and goodwill. So here goes.
1) It's not this time last year. Things are pretty bad now but they were a whole heap worse 12 months ago. Most of us didn't realise it at the time but the state was seriously in danger early in 2009 of not being able to pay its bills. That danger has passed. Our euro-membership provided a huge safety net. We now know we can borrow money and the international markets seem to believe that the will is there to take the tough decisions to rectify the fiscal crisis. Whatever happens over the next couple of years, our financial sovereignty is assured.
2) We're well into the prescription. More unpalatable medicine definitely awaits us – a widening of the tax net, a property tax (at some point), reform of work practices in the public sector, more spending cutbacks – but less than we've already taken. Income tax won't go up for the vast majority of workers, public sector pay rates can't be cut any further and hopefully there won't be a need to reduce welfare further next year.
3) Home thoughts from abroad. There are signs that the world economy could revive in 2010. As one of the most open economies on the planet, that is crucial for any recovery here.
4) Home thoughts from home. Brian Lenihan's promise that the worst is over attracted criticism, but undeniably some signs are positive. Sadly, more people will lose their jobs next year but the rate of increase in unemployment has slowed. Consumer sentiment is showing tentative signs of recovery. Tax revenues have finally stabilised after a year of plummeting remorselessly.
5) This is NOT the 1980s – part I. Take a walk down Dublin's docklands, with its wonderful modern architecture or drive the motorway from Galway to the capital to see the benefits that the Celtic tiger has brought us. Our infrastructure still has serious deficiencies but we're way ahead of where we were 25 years ago. We're going back to 2003 in terms of income and wealth, not 1983.
6) This is NOT the 1980s – part II. Three decades ago, it took the best part of 10 years before any action was taken to address the crisis in the public finances, exacerbating the problem hugely. This time around, decisive (and painful) measures have been introduced almost straight away. That's not to excuse the disastrous decisions that were made that caused the crisis, but credit where credit is due.
7) Eu-topia. This time last year we were in serious danger of being marginalised in the EU. The impact of a second 'No' vote on Lisbon would have been disastrous but, thankfully, there was a huge endorsement of the treaty in the second referendum.
8) Nama republic. Of course the jury is still out on Nama but it's the option we've gone with and whatever its flaws, it's a damn sight better than doing nothing. Time will tell whether it helps get credit flowing again and the banks still need capitalisation, but getting Nama into law was crucial.
9) Government by unpopular demand. You are probably waiting in the long grass to give the current government a right kicking in the next general election and that's fair enough. It's only a matter of when FG and Labour take over. But in the meantime there is something to be said for having a government that is so unpopular that it's gone beyond worrying about opinion polls and whose only hope of salvaging something is to be seen to 'do the right thing' and take the tough decisions, however unpopular. A new government, elected with a thumping mandate, would struggle to take the calls that would see its popularity quickly erode.
10) We've been through worse. Cathleen Ní Houlihan or Sean Bhean Bhocht has been through perilous times before – the 1980s, the '50s, the '30s, the Famine, Penal Laws, Cromwell, the Normans, the Vikings etc, etc – and come through them. Déanfaimid arís é.
scoleman@tribune.ie
10 reasons to be cheerful
"Sadly, more people will lose their jobs next year but the rate of increase in unemployment has slowed"
Will you stop with this rubbish. 76,000 people are expected to lose their jobs in 2010. "Cheerful" ?
76,000 people with families, mortgages, rent, food bills, car loans, personal loans, children to send to school, healthcare costs.
Give us a break Shane.