THE union leadership owes Brian Cowen, and it owes him big. Ictu's proposed day of action, planned for tomorrow, had descended into absolute farce before the Taoiseach threw David Begg et al a lifeline with his invitation to resume talks on a national agreement for economic recovery.

The union leadership was looking at the appalling vista of holding widespread strike action without the support of key sections of its membership and in the face of open hostility from many private sector workers.

Talk of the damage that such a strike would have done to Ireland Inc is grossly overstated. The financial markets, for example, would be far more concerned that the government isn't deviating from its tough line on the public finances than about a one-day stoppage. Once the government wasn't seen to be caving in on the day of protest, the markets wouldn't be stressing about the loss of one day's productivity, primarily in the public sector.

But in public relations and credibility terms, the impact on the wider union movement would have been disastrous and social partnership would probably have been finished for a long, long time.

Cowen had a choice last week. He could have left the unions to be hoist on their own petard. And given how they walked away from the talks process a few weeks back, it must have been tempting to do just that.

However, rightly or wrongly, he chose not to. Instead, he offered the hand of friendship and, in so doing, got the union leadership out of the dreadful hole they had dug for themselves.

By this action, Cowen clearly showed his commitment to, and faith in, the merits of social partnership, although it is questionable whether this commitment and faith is justified.

Notwithstanding the legitimate reservations about how it has usurped the primacy of Dáil Éireann, it would be churlish not to acknowledge the benefits of social partnership over the past 20 years. The industrial relations stability that has ensued, and the certainty it lent to corporate and national planning, cannot be ignored.

However, unquestionably, it has come at a price. Everybody involved in social partnership – government, unions, employers, farmers, Cori – has to shoulder some of the blame for the mess in which the country now finds itself.

Social partnership in recent years had become less about problem-solving and more about problem-avoiding. Tough decisions were shirked. Money was thrown at potential difficulties to ensure nothing disturbed the ultimate insiders' club. The benchmarking process – a set-up from start to finish – was just the most obvious and high-profile example of this.

Similarly, there must be very real doubts as to whether social partnership is the best means of getting the country out of this mess. Yes, the prospect of getting agreement from unions and employers on an economic package – which includes broadening of the tax net, targeted spending cutbacks, sorting out the banking crisis and a range of measures to try and protect jobs – is certainly alluring. But how realistic is it?

The union leadership walked away from the talks because it couldn't sell the pension levy to its members. Even if it secures many of the things in Ictu's 10-point plan, will it be able to stomach the inevitable pain that is coming, not just in Tuesday week's budget but in the 2010 budget next December?

High earners are going to be hit hard and it's inevitable that tax shelters – what's left of them – will be closed off. But at the other end of the scale, the current system, in which half of the workforce either pay no tax or are net beneficiaries from the state, must also end.

The €21bn social welfare budget is also going to take a hit, even if it doesn't involve cuts in pension or basic social-welfare rates. And, while the unions are talking about "amelioration" of the pension levy, in reality there will have to be more dents in the public-sector pay bill.

Understandably, the union leadership is going to find it very difficult to swallow a lot of the tough medicine that is required. And, from a national-interest point of view, the worry is that the government will be so anxious to keep the unions on board that it will end up shying away from some of the difficult decisions that simply have to be made.

Certainly, things seemed more straightforward a couple of weeks ago when the unions were effectively out of the picture and it was simply down to the government to do the dirty job. Of course, straightforward isn't always necessarily best. And, whatever about the financial markets, a plan for national recovery – agreed against all the odds with all sides making considerable sacrifices – can boost the morale of the nation.

But there is no doubt the next couple of weeks will be the ultimate test of social partnership. Problems can no longer be avoided or bought off – quite the opposite; they have to be faced head on.

Social partnership is worth persevering with, but only if it genuinely proves to be a servant of the greater good. In these perilous times, we can no longer afford for it to be its master.

scoleman@tribune