First of all, let's deal with the diversion of the week.
There may be merit in what the ESRI said about extending the timeframe for cutting the deficit from four years to six. The ESRI's fears of the harm that a massively deflationary budget will do to the economy are perfectly justifiable. They are a reflection of the debate going on among economists across the globe. The IMF itself is urging those countries that are less financially challenged to apply austerity with a light touch because it fears a collective belt-tightening could push the weakest over the brink.
The European Central Bank and the masters of the eurozone – Germany – beg to differ. It is their money and their clout that is keeping our banks and economy afloat. So, arbitrary or not in terms of our own financial position, four years it is.
All parties bar Sinn Féin acknowledge this. At the moment, we can still choose where the cuts should fall, even if our "verifiable and credible" plan has to be signed off by the European Commission and the ECB. But if we fail to come up with cutbacks, Europe will do the choosing for us.
It is ironic, therefore, that as we struggle to retain our economic sovereignty, a salutary lesson in how to assess a problem, propose action, weigh up the consequences and, with all the messianic force of strongly-held political conviction, wield the axe, was demonstrated so authoritatively by our "auld enemy" across the water in the form of the Conservative British chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne.
Anyone watching the British parliamentary debates about his Comprehensive Spending Review will have been struck by the extraordinary breadth of decisions taken and the detail of the four-year roadmap that, department by department, sector by sector, geographical area by area, household by household, has now become the template for the government of Britain. It amounted to cuts of €81bn or an overall 19% slash and burn over the term of the parliament.
It was economic, but it was also ideological. By any judgement, while it whacked the rich and middle classes, it was an attack without precedent on the poor and the welfare system.
This is not to suggest that this country slavishly follows Britain's spending review. The real lesson lies in the mesmerising speed with which the new British government has approached its deficit problems. The general election was in May. The Con-Lib coalition government formed within a week. Its first emergency budget – a mix of cuts and tax increases – was presented within six weeks. Last week's spending review took exactly four months from conception to completion.
Arguments about child benefit cuts, higher pension contributions for public servants, job losses, a pay freeze, cuts in rent allowance, employment and disability benefits – which get swamped in years of fuzzy debate and political cowardice here – were dealt with decisively, their rationale clearly explained and their impact assessed. Meanwhile, the NHS is being reorganised and the country's defence strategy is being overhauled. And that doesn't count raising university fees.
The 'real work', of course, starts with the implementation of Osborne's plan. A plan becomes credible only when targets are met. The verdict has divided British opinion with many, rightly, extremely concerned at the focus on those dependent on social welfare. The full impact will not be known until the full details have been digested by those who will feel it at the sharp end. As the Financial Times put it, "Osborne is heading into the unknown".
So are we. But the trouble is, it is because of roads not taken rather than because of decisive action and the hacking out of "credible pathways".
This government has been unlucky in the way global recession has made things so much worse here. But it has also been semi-competent with regard to the banks and unforgivably hesitant about controlling public spending. Now, as we teeter on the brink, it seems it is in the middle of a row with its Green partners (those advocates of consensus) over whether it's possible to afford metro north and retain free university fees. The self-indulgence is boundless.
Fine Gael, meanwhile, is sharpening up its act. Richard Bruton has been finalising a radical overhaul of the public sector, 'Reinventing Government'. The proposals, says Bruton, go beyond anything envisaged before. His analysis will have authority given his knowledge of government and economics. Given that FG will be governing this country within the next year, the step-up in detail makes a welcome change from unfocused anger.
Between panic, indecision and incompetence, this government has wasted more than two years. We are counting the cost of that delay in billions. For the opposition, the rage stage has to be over. They will be in government very soon. They have to be ready to move as quickly and decisively as Britain.
I just heared it on the grapevine that some of the big banks in US are selling bad debt again which could lead to more bank closures in the future. Why, you say? Because the paperwork they were putting through in house foreclosures was so shoddy that a many people there may have been thrown out of their homes in the wrong. Investigations are being started by the Fed & by the powers to be in many counties of each state, with the result that many big financial houses & banks have halted doing foreclosures for the time being, so some of those banks are back in the game of selling or trying to sell these debts again on the sly. This could, if it were proved to be true, (& many experts are now thinking it is) could lead to more bank closures in the states & may then send shivers worldwide. This story, will I think gather pace over the next few weeks. Foreclosures up to now number approx 260.000 in US. And the worst thing is that at this time, the mid term elections are at their most busy It could come to pass that Obama & the Democrats could lose both houses.
Another one to watch is the beginning of a housing bubble & forecloseure phenomenal in China & Hong Kong soon...where prices of same are upwardly going mad. China's Government are getting very worried as all the warnings & whatever action they already took isn't succeeding. So on a world scale, it seems things are far from fixed yet.