DAY 1,191 in Leinster House, and the occupants of the 30th Dáil inch ever closer to the final vote on eviction. Such is the level of public hostility to Brian Cowen, John Gormley et al, the outcome of that vote is hardly in much doubt. Fine Gael and Labour will form the next government with a thumping majority. The only questions that remain are: when that election will be (spring/early summer 2011 looks the most likely date) and what the seat breakdown will be between Fine Gael and Labour (70-30, 60-40, 55-45?).

It's hard to listen to a radio show at the moment without at least one listener texting in that the sooner we get rid of the current shower the better for the country. If only our problems could be solved so easily. Eamon Gilmore, a leader who constantly keeps his finger in the air to see what way the wind is blowing, was tapping into that mood last week when he said that the best thing the Taoiseach could do, rather than apologising, was to go to the Áras and seek the dissolution of the Dáil.

There's an old adage about being careful what you wish for that the Labour leader would be wise to remember. His time will certainly come but does the shrewdest politician in the Dáil right now really want to be in government before the upcoming budget and before Anglo Irish and the banks are sorted? He must know that there are going to be plenty of challenges for the new Fine Gael-Labour administration (budget 2012 being the most obvious) without adding to them.

The public's anger at the government is entirely understandable. The country is in a mess and, along with the banks and the regulatory authorities, the government has to shoulder the lion's share of the blame for that because it failed to spot the warning signals around the middle of the last decade.

There is certainly a strong argument to be made for a new government coming in with new energy and motivation to tackle the crisis, freed of the shackles of what they did or didn't do to cause the bust.

But there is an even stronger argument that this shouldn't happen before the end of this year. With the rate that Ireland has to pay to borrow money exceeding 6.3% on Friday, it's clear the last thing the financial markets need right now is uncertainty. It's absolutely vital that a final cost for Anglo is settled on and that a budget with at least (and probably more than) €3bn in savings is introduced as planned in December. The calling of a general election before this happened could unnerve the markets. They would question whether there would be a change in tack on the banks and if a new coalition, flush with popularity, would have the stomach to take the really tough budgetary choices.

Despite the obvious policy differences between the two main opposition parties, common sense dictates that both Fine Gael and Labour realise just how perilous Ireland's situation is and that they will be willing and able to take the tough decisions when they get to government. But the financial markets – who don't know Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore from Adam – will want to see proof of that. That takes time and quite simply we can't afford to have the usual three-and-a-half week campaign, allied to a long drawn-out negotiation of a programme for government, in the coming months. It's fine – and many would argue highly desirable – if all that happens next spring, but not in the run-up to budget day.

And whenever it does come to government, the fact is that the new Fine Gael and Labour coalition is going to be doing pretty much exactly what Fianna Fáil and the Greens have been doing. Kenny and Gilmore may do a better job of selling it to the public, particularly as they won't be seen as the people who caused the crisis in the first place. But make no mistake, the cutbacks will have to be every bit as severe.

There will be tax increases. A property tax and water rates and even the return of third-level fees will have to be on the agenda. Pay and social welfare cuts won't be reversed (they may even have to look at further moves in the opposite direction), nor will the restrictions on medical cards for over 70s. The banks will still need to be "bailed out". Anglo Irish won't be closed down overnight.

It's easy from the opposition benches to talk about bondholders sharing the pain or to use soundbites about the focus needing to be on job creation not fiscal rectitude, but if we want to keep the IMF from the door, there is simply no alternative to current policies. There is no silver bullet that can solve the unemployment crisis. Economic growth is the only thing that will deliver jobs and even then that could take some time.

It could be argued that on the banks, a different approach should have been taken. But nobody can really say for certain which the best option was and beware anybody who tries to. For every
Financial Times editorial criticising Ireland's approach there is an alternative piece in the Economist praising Ireland for its decision to set up Nama and force the banks to clean up their balance sheets vigorously rather than putting off dealing with their problems as, the magazine says, Germany and Britain have.

Besides, with Nama now up and running and the key decisions on the banks already taken, the new government will have no option but to continue on the course set by the current coalition.

The worry for Fine Gael and Labour is that the public does not fully appreciate this. There have been reports in recent days about the two opposition parties being on an election footing. But the election is going to be the easy bit for them. The last time Fine Gael and Labour formed a government after a general election was in 1982 and the two parties spent the next four years disagreeing on how best to solve the then crisis facing the economy, resulting in political paralysis.

It goes without saying that this cannot be allowed to happen again. The two parties need to start preparing the ground for when they get into government. Perhaps the most important part of that will be managing the electorate so they know what to expect when they take power. Without such a strategy the 31st Dáil might prove far shorter-lived than its predecessor is likely to be.

scoleman@tribune.ie