The opening round of fixtures at the World Cup has concluded, showcasing all 48 participating teams. What insights can we glean from the matches? Who stood out, who faltered, and who was fortunate in their performance? A thorough analysis of the Opta data reveals some intriguing statistics that may not be immediately visible from just the final scores.
Mexico 2–0 South Africa
Mexico displayed the slowest ball movement of any team during this round. They took their time, largely due to South Africa’s minimal offensive threat. It bodes poorly when a team receives as many red cards as they have touches in the opponent’s penalty area, a situation that unfortunately characterized the losing side.
South Korea 2–1 Czechia
This match marked the introduction of a notable trend seen in the 2025-26 Premier League season. The former West Ham player, Vladimir Coufal, executed a long throw-in that was deftly headed in by Wolves center-back Ladislav Krejci, putting Czechia ahead. Ultimately, South Korea emerged victorious, highlighted by the 25-pass build-up leading to Hwang In-beom’s equalizer, which ranks as the joint-fifth longest passing sequence resulting in a goal in World Cup history.
When compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Czechia’s effectiveness from set pieces appeared lacking. Seven of their eight attempts against Canada stemmed from set plays. Coach Sergej Barbarez will need to encourage his team to create more than a single open play opportunity per match. The remaining teams’ inefficiencies, similar to Canada’s, could also benefit them.
United States 4–1 Paraguay
Pre-match predictions from Opta Analyst ranked this clash as the second-closest contest among the initial fixtures. However, the USA defied those expectations. Paraguay, despite having one of the best defensive records in the South American qualifiers, allowed their opponents 53 touches within their penalty area, the second-highest figure after Curaçao faced Germany.
Qatar 1–1 Switzerland
Australia 2–0 Turkey
Spain 0–0 Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay
Portugal 1–1 DR Congo
These matches are grouped together as the favored teams fell short for similar reasons. Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, and Uruguay led the tournament in possession and accuracy of passes into the final third. They controlled the ball effectively, with Portugal being the exception, generating at least 25 shots overall.
The underlying issue was the quality of the scoring opportunities created. A respectable expected goals tally diminishes when it is dispersed across several low-probability attempts from distance. Spain averaged just 0.08 xG per shot, while Uruguay (0.06) and Turkey (0.04) lagged behind. These figures were even lower than those recorded by Burnley and Wolves in the Premier League this season (0.09), teams that certainly do not aspire to replicate such statistics.
The so-called underdogs showcased a newfound defensive resilience that had previously been lacking. Bigger teams should take note.
Brazil 1–1 Morocco
This match likely set the tone for Brazil’s campaign. Despite a few defensive vulnerabilities, evident in Morocco’s goal, their prospects look promising if they can effectively utilize Vinícius Júnior.
A commendation is warranted for Carlo Ancelotti; his halftime adjustments ensured that Morocco went without a shot from the break until the 98th minute.
Haiti 0–1 Scotland
With nine draws already recorded, the proportion of stalemates in this World Cup phase is unprecedented. Is this a symptom of an expanded format that minimizes risk for many teams? Time will tell.
This particular match could have easily ended in a draw. Both teams finished with identical expected goals of 1.05.
Germany 7–1 Curaçao
Data from Transfermarkt indicates that the value of Germany’s starting XI was €559.4m (£485m) higher than that of Curaçao’s lineup. Opta had assigned the four-time champions a remarkable 90.7% probability of winning.
Netherlands 2–2 Japan
The Netherlands increased their expected goals tally by 1.38 in Opta’s post-shot model, the highest among all teams. Japan, despite scoring twice, had the fewest touches in the opponent’s penalty area and the lowest xG of any team that managed to score more than once.
Ghana 1–0 Panama
These matches concluded with either jubilant or heartbreaking outcomes, depending on one’s viewpoint. Ecuador struck the post three times, while Panama squandered two significant Opta-defined opportunities. As the clock approached 89 minutes, it appeared a draw was imminent.
However, Amad Diallo and Caleb Yirenkyi dashed those hopes with late goals for their respective teams.
Sweden 5–1 Tunisia
This result might suggest that Sweden is back on track following a disappointing qualification campaign. However, this impression is somewhat undermined by Graham Potter’s team outperforming their expected goals by 3.67, the highest of any team.
It seems the Tunisian football federation is not considering expected goal outliers, as they relieved Sabri Lamouchi of his duties following this match. It will take more than Hervé Renard to turn their fortunes around.
Belgium 1–1 Egypt
This match illustrated the crucial need to capitalize on scoring opportunities. After taking a 1-0 lead early in the second half, Mohamed Salah had a header saved, with Emam Ashour, the scorer, wasting the rebound. Shortly after, Omar Marmoush missed a counterattack chance.
Then came Romelu Lukaku. Entering in the 66th minute, he immediately forced an own goal to equalize, while Egypt could only manage three low-quality chances for the remainder of the match.
Iran 2–2 New Zealand
Iran fielded the joint second-oldest starting XI in World Cup history, averaging 31.8 years. Football enthusiasts might enjoy recalling the older German squad from 1998, who beat Iran 2-0.
Nonetheless, age did not hinder what turned out to be one of the most thrilling matches. Iran was unlucky to contend with the New Zealand duo of Chris Wood and Elijah Just. Wood assisted Just for both of his goals, marking the only pairing to achieve two assists in this match.
France 3–1 Senegal
France’s performance showcased two contrasting halves. Their first 45 minutes seemed to steer them toward the “big team with lots of the ball fail to win” narrative. However, exquisite defense-splitting passes from Michael Olise and Adrien Rabiot ensured a different outcome.
Interestingly, six Premier League teams did not accumulate more than two through-ball assists throughout the entire season; France accomplished this feat within a 16-minute span.
Iraq 1–4 Norway
Iraq initially held their ground until two defensive lapses allowed Norway to regain the lead. Erling Haaland currently leads the World Cup in individual expected goals, and a significant portion of his tally can be attributed to a blunder from goalkeeper Jalal Hassan.
Argentina 3–0 Algeria
One of the most surprising statistics from the first wave of fixtures is that Algeria had more touches in the opponent’s penalty area than Argentina, limiting the reigning champions to just 12. Yet, they were also the only team that failed to register a shot on target, proving that when Lionel Messi is in form, statistics can be nearly irrelevant.
Austria 3–1 Jordan
Both teams had 11 shots, with four on target. However, the difference lay in Opta-defined big chances—opportunities where scoring is highly likely. Austria led this metric 4-0 and also benefited from an own goal.
England 4–2 Croatia
England created the most significant number of big chances, totaling seven, more than any other team. It was not surprising that four of these arose from set pieces, as they recorded more attempts from dead-ball situations than from open play. Harry Kane’s two goals propelled him onto the list of the highest scorers in World Cup history, and he is poised to join the top ten before the conclusion of the group stage.
Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia
Lastly, we witnessed a fairly routine victory for Colombia. Uzbekistan’s xG figures appeared respectable, largely due to Abbosbek Fayzullayev scoring from a situation valued at 0.98. Few individuals in any field will ever have a better opportunity to become a national hero.
