As often happens, Donald Trump has voiced what many have been thinking. In an interview with Fox News leading up to the World Cup final, he stated, “We have to do this again and we have to do it while I’m around, you hear that Gianni?” The prospect of the United States making a bid for the 2038 World Cup has become a hot topic among global sports administrators over the past month. Observers have noted the country’s insatiable appetite for major events and its readiness to invest significantly to attend them.
Fifa has been quietly but actively supporting a potential US bid for some time. During a meeting at the Waldorf Astoria in New York, the reasons for this encouragement became increasingly evident.
Fifa Revenue Projections Surge
Fifa President Gianni Infantino informed representatives from the governing body’s 211 member associations that revenue projections for the current four-year cycle have jumped from $11 billion (£8.2 billion) to $15 billion, with most of this increase attributed to a surge in ticketing and hospitality revenue. A source within Fifa revealed that demand in the United States has been so robust that ticket and hospitality sales have surpassed $5 billion, marking the first time this revenue stream has outpaced the World Cup’s television rights.
“Fifa will want to get back here as quickly as possible,” remarked a senior executive from one of Fifa’s hospitality partners.
Major TV Rights Issues
While ticket sales have exceeded expectations, aided by dynamic pricing and the secondary market resale culture prevalent in the US, Fifa has left considerable revenue untapped. This is another factor driving its eagerness to return. In a remarkable arrangement, Fifa granted Fox Sports the English-language TV rights in the US without a competitive bidding process. This decision was a precautionary measure to avoid potential lawsuits after the tournament was shifted to winter, conflicting with the US domestic sports calendar, notably the NFL and NBA seasons.
Due to the lack of bidding tension, Fox secured the rights for the 2026 tournament at a relatively low $485 million, the same price as for Qatar, despite the upcoming World Cup featuring 40 additional matches and being held on home ground. For comparison, the NFL’s domestic TV deal is worth $11 billion annually, while the NBA generates around $7 billion.
Future Bids and Opportunities
Fox has reaped substantial benefits this summer from high viewing numbers, with industry experts forecasting it will generate over $1 billion from TV advertisements, largely due to an increase in volume and value linked to hydration breaks. Fifa is determined to recover what many perceive as lost earnings from the US market in upcoming TV rights negotiations.
As Fox capitalizes on this success, ESPN and NBC are expected to enter the bidding for the 2030 tournament, with preliminary discussions also occurring with Netflix about participating in the auction. Netflix has already expressed its growing interest in soccer by acquiring American rights for the Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031, the latter to be hosted in the US. Another men’s tournament in 2038 would likely lead to a further boom in interest.
While no nation has hosted the World Cup twice within a 12-year span, Fifa’s regulations and recent hosting decisions allow for this possibility. With the 2030 World Cup scheduled to span three continents and six countries—Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay—followed by Saudi Arabia hosting in 2034, a North American bid for 2038 aligns with Fifa’s confederation rotation policy, alongside a potential bid from Oceania.
Soccer Australia had aimed to bid for 2034 but withdrew its candidacy after being given limited time to register interest, leaving Saudi Arabia as the sole candidate. However, the North American confederation, Concacaf, reportedly has reservations about another US bid, wishing to provide opportunities for its other members.
Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Mexico have been included in the 2031 Women’s World Cup bid, and another joint effort could be on the horizon, although Trump has expressed a preference for the US to host alone. “Based on the numbers we will be requesting it again immediately,” he told Fox.
Timeline for 2038 Bid
Fifa’s timeline for initiating the 2038 bidding process remains unclear, but historical precedents indicate it could move swiftly to achieve its objectives. The unexpected opening of the 2034 bidding in October 2024 caught many confederations off guard, with Infantino announcing Saudi Arabia as the host just 25 days later, a decision confirmed by all Fifa members at an unusual virtual general meeting two months afterward.
Infantino is expected to be re-elected for a fourth full term at the upcoming Fifa Congress in Morocco, likely without opposition, shifting focus to the 2038 contest. Unless there is an unprecedented amendment to the US constitution enabling an additional presidential term, Trump is set to leave office in January 2029, potentially establishing a deadline for Fifa’s plans.
