IT'S going to be the most sought-after job of 2010, assuming of course there isn't a general election. But we still don't know what powers it will have, how much it will pay or even when the position will be available. The job in question is, of course, the new Dublin mayor, the brainchild of environment minister John Gormley in his quest to bring more democracy to local government.

Despite the scepticism and the view that Fianna Fáil is less than enamoured by the concept, every one in government is unanimous that it will happen in the coming year and that the job will cover the entire Dublin region, taking in the four local authorities. But, after that, everything gets a little sketchy.

Although Gormley continues to express "his hope" that the mayoral election will be held in June, the legislation required to give legal standing to the new role has not been included in the government's priority list for this Dáil session.

However, the Department of Environment says this is because the heads of the bill have first to be formally approved by cabinet, which will happen in the coming weeks, ensuring the bill will be published before Easter. But even if that is the case, holding an election in June looks a tall order.

The private view in government circles is that the June deadline will not be met and that an election in September or October is more realistic. The matter-of-fact assessment of one senior government figure is that it "will happen this year. It's in the programme for government".

Also somewhat up in the air is the degree of powers attached to the new role. Government sources say the powers granted to the new mayor are potentially open to change between now and the heads of the bill being unveiled. The obvious yardstick for the job is the position of London mayor, which was created a decade ago and is regarded as a success. How will the Dublin version shape up? "It will be as powerful a role as the London mayor was when it started off. It started off with responsibility for policy and it grew from there," is the assessment of one government source.

When announcing the initiative last year, Gormley said the Dublin mayor would be responsible for establishing strategic policy for land-use, waste management, water services and housing across the four local authorities. Those authorities will be required to ensure they comply with plans, strategies and policies that fall within the mayor's remit.

But one of the key questions that remains unanswered is what role the new mayor will have on the National Transport Authority, which is due to be formed out of the Dublin Transport Authority. Responsibility for transport has become a key aspect of the responsibilities of the London mayor, as evidenced by the decision to bring in congestion charges for the English capital. It seems unlikely that a Dublin mayor can be chair of a national body but government sources insist there will be "very strong linkages there" between the mayor and the new NTA.

But the sources stress that any powers afforded to the new office will be more to do with strategic policy formulation. "Boris Johnson [the London mayor] doesn't decide on parking policies in Hammersmith versus say Clapham, but he is responsible for the overall plan for the city."

Greater powers

At the very least, the new mayor will have considerably greater powers than the current mayors of the four Dublin authorities. He or she will have executive powers and will be at a level above the previously all-powerful city and county managers in Dublin City Council and Fingal, South Dublin and Dun-Laoghaire-Rathdown county councils. Not surprisingly, local politicians say that these managers "are the least enthusiastic about this whole thing".

But while it seems obvious the new role must have powers in relation to transport and planning, much will also depend on the person who first fills the job. "It depends on the personality of the person who gets it," says one potential candidate. "There is no real template for it. There will be great scope to make it up as you go along."

To date, the name most linked with the new position has been former taoiseach Bertie Ahern, speculation he has done little to quell by playing down but not entirely dismissing the possibility. "If I saw a mayor with full, full executive powers – which I don't think from what I'm hearing I'm going to see – then you would think about it. I was a mayor 24 years ago with a chain around my neck and no powers. I don't need to do that again," he said recently.

Ahern clarified that by "full powers", he meant the powers to raise taxes, which is not going to happen. That would seem to rule him out, but there are those in Fianna Fáil who believe Ahern might be interested. "It's typical Bertie. He is a great man for testing waters. I suspect the media coverage has been self-generated, flying a kite to see if it catches wind," said one Fianna Fáil politician.

But with Ahern's legacy so damaged by the economic recession – not to mention the possibility of a mayoral election co-inciding with the publication of the Mahon tribunal report – there seems little prospect of Ahern emerging as the Fianna Fáil candidate, even if he wanted to be.

"People have moved on," is the verdict of one Fianna Fáiler.

More realistic options for Fianna Fáil include Eibhlín Byrne, the unsuccessful Euro candidate, and Mary Fitzpatrick, the party's group leader on Dublin City Council, who was a rare success story for the party in last year's local elections.

However, with Fianna Fáil struggling badly in the capital, it seems a fair bet that the first occupant of the new post will not be from the main government party or indeed from the Greens, which is faring badly in the polls.

With Sinn Féin in disarray in the capital (see opposite page) and Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party concentrating on re-gaining his Dáil seat in Dublin West, the election contest should be a straight fight between Fine Gael and Labour – unless of course some high-profile independent candidate emerges as happened in the first London election, won by then Labour outcast Ken Livingstone.

Fine Gael is quite sniffy about the entire mayoral concept. A senior party figure said: "We are not in favour of the idea of a directly elected mayor for Dublin until 2014. We are more in favour of giving power to the councillors first before you appoint a new mayor when there are already four existing mayors in Dublin. "As far as we are concerned, this is just a vanity project for the Greens".

However, faced with the prospect of being usurped by Labour, the main opposition party will have little option but to engage. MEP Gay Mitchell has been the name most mentioned in speculation. He is a formidable vote getter – securing nearly 100,000 votes in last year's Euro elections ? and is closely identified with the city. He told the Sunday Tribune this weekend that he was very happy with what he was doing in Europe and while he conceded that he was "constantly getting teased about it", he hadn't "given any thought to the idea" of standing for mayor.

Formidable candidate

For Labour, former finance minister Ruairí Quinn is being talked about and, with his high profile and extensive cabinet experience, allied to a background in architecture and planning, he would make a formidable candidate. But while the challenge of championing the capital city could appeal to Quinn, his interest would inevitably depend on the level of powers given to the new position.

If Labour opts to draw from the ranks of its Dublin councillors, city councillor Dermot Lacey, who has long campaigned for the creation of a directly elected mayor, would be the obvious choice. He says his "hat is in the outer ring" and that he has been hugely pleased with the supportive comments he has received, but adds that his loyalty is to his party and if the leadership wanted to run a credible big- name candidate, he would be fully supportive.

The prospect of one of the two opposition parties running a big-name candidate from outside politics cannot be ruled out. Radio presenter Joe Duffy is high up in the bookies' lists of favourites and there were unfounded rumours last week linking him to an approach from Fine Gael. Senior party sources dismissed those rumours out of hand, but strategists from the main parties say that if Duffy, or someone of that standing and profile, was to decide to run, he would have a serious chance.

In what is likely to be a quasi-presidential contest, profile and name recognition will be hugely important. The successful candidate, party strategists say, will have to be synonymous with Dublin, but also appeal to the large percentage of non-Dubs who reside in the capital. The scepticism about the level of powers is understandable but, a little like managing the Dublin football team, the huge profile that will come with the job should compensate for any inadequacies and ensure there is no shortage of willing applicants when the job comes up for grabs later this year.

Paddy Power mayor odds

5/2 Ruairí Quinn
3/1 Gay Mitchell
8/1 Dermot Lacey, Royston Brady
14/1 Seán Haughey, Joe Duffy, Eibhlín Byrne
16/1 Pat Rabbitte
18/1 David Norris
20/1 John Gormley, Trevor Sargent, Bertie Ahern, Eoin Ryan (below)
25/1 Brian Hayes, Mary Lou McDonald, Joe Higgins, Killian Forde
33/1 Bono
50/1 Bob Geldof, Shane Ross, Paddy Bourke
66/1 George Hook, Gay Byrne
100/1 Miriam O'Callaghan, Gerry Ryan
500/1 Dustin the Turkey