July 18, 2010

VOL 27 NO 29

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Divisions, tensions: something rotten in the state of Fine Gael

Publicly, everything seems peaceful again in the Fine Gael camp, but insiders say the reality is far from fine. With no true party unity and fears growing over a lack of new voter support, the pressure is on, writes Political Editor Shane Coleman

Finance past and present: Michael Noonan (left) with his predecessor Richard Bruton

Two sides, one party: Fine Gael's new front bench

The Stephen's Green Club, scene of the 'tense' gathering

Senator Paul Coghlan

TD John Deasy

Do ya wanna be in my gang: Enda Kenny's Fine Gael is still heavily divided, say party insiders

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IT should have been a most civilised gathering last Tuesday evening. The venue was the Stephen's Green Club just around the corner from Dáil Eireann. The host was the popular Kerry senator Paul Coghlan, who had invited his fellow Fine Gael senators around to the venerable club for wine and nibbles to mark the end of the Seanad term for the summer.

However, instead of an affable pre-summer break get-together, what transpired, according to some sources, was a tense and difficult evening that highlighted the split that remains in the party following the recent leadership heave that divided Fine Gael virtually down the middle.

"The thing lasted for about two hours but after about half an hour you knew you didn't want to be there. It was extremely tense and nasty and uncomfortable. The room was split into two groups who didn't want to be around each other," one source told the Sunday Tribune this weekend.

However others who were present dismiss this, describing the gathering as a very friendly night out with any tension confined to a couple of senators on each side. "The rest of us are live and let live", said one source who was present. "It was great old craic".

It is understood there was a series of informal speeches made with one in particular from an Enda Kenny supporter calling for loyalty to the leader going down like a lead balloon with those senators who had been in the Richard Bruton camp during the heave.

Reference was made in another speech to the bitterness caused by the split. A few barbed and personal comments were made – including at least one that referred to past leadership battles in Fine Gael – and the two groups kept to their own sides of the room.

"It wasn't a shouting match. It's gone beyond that. In some ways you could get over a shouting match quicker but this is almost beyond repair. There were a few words exchanged, but that's not the problem. The problem is the deep tension," one senior party source said.

One of those present described how the two groups stood at different sides of the room and there was no desire to be with the other group. The atmosphere was "extremely tense", the senator said, adding only half jokingly that "alcohol only dulls the senses so much".

And, it seems, this is not a new development. If anything, the tensions among Fine Gael senators have been more acute than among TDs. Unlike the Dáil deputies, the majority of senators went with Kenny in the leadership battle, despite his commitment to abolishing the Seanad. Some of the key members of Kenny's kitchen cabinet are based in the upper house. And, party figures admit, a considerable awkwardness has lingered between those senators who backed Kenny and the minority who went for Richard Bruton.

In the few minutes between the calling of a vote in the Seanad and the actual vote taking place, there has been a tendency for senators to "gravitate to their own comfort zone", with the Kenny supporters and dissidents sticking to themselves. "What happened on Tuesday was not particularly different to recent weeks," a party source said. "It was no surprise."

All of this contrasts with the official line coming from Fine Gael that the family is fully healed after its recent spat. Kenny told the recent press conference to mark the announcement of his new front bench that there was nobody waiting in the long grass in the party. And people associated with the party have been at pains publicly to stress what was done was done and that it was now time to move on.

Party still divided

This 'everything-in-the-garden-is-rosy' argument has been causing increasing irritation among those who voted against Kenny. And last weekend, John Deasy, never afraid to speak his mind, seemed to decide that enough was enough. Speaking at the Young Fine Gael annual summer school, the Waterford TD criticised members who claimed that the party had emerged enhanced from the recent leadership contest, saying it was "untrue" that the party was united.

"If you want to mend something, you have to be honest about the situation," he said. Stressing that he accepted the democratic decision of the party to retain Kenny, Deasy said there was a split in the party and it had been present for "quite a long time", pre-dating Bruton's leadership bid. "There's a schism, it's very deep. We still have to address the core issue for us as a political party – we haven't attracted a great deal of support since the last election, at a time when the government is deeply unpopular."

Deasy concluded that the problem was "correctable" but that people needed to be "honest about the problems that exist; you can't avoid the real issue".

The Waterford man was outlining in public what many of his colleagues are saying in private. "Of course there's a division. It's still very raw. And this democratic centralist position that it's all over and the spinning operation that we are one happy team, well it's going to take some time. The party is split down the middle and the idea that it's all going to be behind us after a few weeks is ludicrous," one senior TD said. He said there were currently about 30 people in the parliamentary party who backed Kenny to the hilt; 30 who wanted change and a small group in the middle that had largely backed the leader in the recent contest.

While there has been a bit of talk that some of those who backed Kenny had been left disappointed by the recent front-bench reshuffle – "30 into 22 doesn't go", quipped one party source – the deputy stressed that he did not think anybody was particularly trying to "up the ante", but added: "We all need some time away from each other to take stock." But significantly, he did not disagree with the claim from some in the Bruton camp that there is a "reign of vindictiveness" by the victors towards the dissidents.

"The winners have been throwing their weight around with great gusto," one senior figure who voted against Kenny said. "It's not just in relation to the new front bench. Within the party, committee jobs are expected to go one way and there's been a lot of talk about conventions and what might happen to those who are not 100% behind the leader."

While there are those in the Bruton camp who would not have the leader on their Christmas card list, he went on to say he was not blaming Enda Kenny for this but "a small group surrounding him", adding that the current "division one and division two set-up is not sustainable".

Another Fine Gael TD was less strong in his language but did say that there was "no kind of magnanimity being shown at all".

The summer break has clearly come at a good time not just for the government but also, it seems, for Fine Gael. The time away should allow some wounds to heal and harsh words to be forgotten. Nor is there any immediate desire to rub fresh salt on those wounds by any further moves against Kenny, who showed himself to be a formidable political operator during the recent heave.

But Deasy's point last weekend that the Labour Party seemed to be attracting "the bulk of floating voters" and it would continue to make inroads at the expense of Fine Gael if party bosses didn't take steps is far from a minority view.

Publicly, there is bullish talk about the party winning 70 seats nationally, including 20 in Dublin. But behind the scenes, there has been much talk in the party about private polls showing Fine Gael standing still and Labour making gains at Fianna Fáil's expense. It's believed that such polls sparked the moves against Kenny in the first place.

The word among TDs is that a poll of the Dublin North constituency showed Labour at around 25%, up from 10% in 2007, and winning a seat, the Greens' Trevor Sargent comfortably holding his seat, with Fianna Fáil retaining one of its two. Fine Gael – despite having two names, including health spokesman James Reilly, on the ballot paper – was apparently only a few points up on three years ago. Reilly should be fine come election day but with the Socialist Party's Clare Daly also performing strongly, the party can't take anything for granted.

A second poll in Cork North-Central reputedly also shows Fianna Fáil losing one of its two seats but again Labour, rather than Fine Gael, taking advantage to win a second seat. And it is known that polls in other Dublin constituencies point to Labour taking two seats and Fine Gael simply holding its own.

It should be stressed that constituency polls are hugely volatile but they do confirm Labour's strong showing in national polls over the past six months. The feeling in the party is that Fine Gael needs to be north of 30% in the polls when the Dáil resumes in the autumn. "If we're at less than 30%, we're not capturing the public mood. Labour at 25% or 26% could win as many seats as Fine Gael at around 30%. Thirty per cent for Fine Gael is fraught with danger. For the second seats in constituencies, 30% isn't enough. The main opposition party should be at 33-34% and winning 70 seats. It's causing a lot of worry," one member of the parliamentary party said.

Too many 'own goals'

Another warned that there is a danger of complacency in Fine Gael with talk that it was never going to attract the public-sector voters that Labour has got from Fianna Fáil and that it's possible for Fine Gael and Labour to both have very good elections. "History shows us that when Labour does well, it's at the expense of Fine Gael," the TD said.

Eyebrows have also been raised within the party about what have been described as a series of "own goals" in recent weeks, culminating in surprising comments from new Finance spokesman Michael Noonan on Newstalk's Breakfast Show on Wednesday, when he said he did not believe Fine Gael's economic stimulus plan, NewERA, could create 105,000 jobs as previously claimed by the party. While the plan was the work of Simon Coveney, Noonan suggested the jobs figure was added on to the report by "enthusiastic" public relations personnel.

TDs say it's vital that such mistakes are eliminated when the serious business of politics resumes in September. And they also say that it's important that the opinion polls show Fine Gael building its support. If that happens, Enda Kenny is untouchable and almost certain to become the next Taoiseach but if it doesn't, in the words of one TD, there will be a "realisation that the problem hasn't gone away".

Underestimating Enda Kenny has been shown to be a mug's game. No other party leader in the history of the state has overcome such a high-powered challenge as the one he overcame a few short weeks ago.

But with politics in such a state of flux and his party's divisions still clearly far from healed, he remains – it appears – at the mercy of the opinion polls.