LABOUR has been the big winner of the economic and banking meltdown – no question. So much so that there is talk of the next election being a genuine three-way contest with Gilmore, potentially, having aspirations for the top job. In an interview last week, the Labour leader said his party was well positioned to win a seat in each of the country's 43 constituencies and two in constituencies in Dublin and other urban areas. Labour had the potential to win 50 seats or more, he claimed. But how realistic are such targets? Recent opinion polls showing Labour in the mid- to high-20s – and with a 30% core vote in Dublin – certainly bolster Gilmore's claims.

Sceptics say that Labour doesn't have the party organisation to translate that support into seats outside of its traditional heartlands. They also question whether Labour can hold its support at that level for potentially another two years and during a campaign when the party will have to offer more than the simple opposition of all the tough and unpopular government decisions. The example of the Liberal Democrats – which flattered to deceive in the UK election – is put forward as an example of what can happen to the parties trying to break the big-two stranglehold.

Such scepticism is not completely without foundation and a lot can certainly change between now and election day, whenever that is. But there is no question that Gilmore and Labour have tapped into the angry mood of a disillusioned public. The party has an unprecedented opportunity to move from its traditional role as coalition make-weights. But just how many seats can it win? Using a combination of national polls, private constituency polls, local election results and soundings on the ground in constituencies, we examine the 43 constituencies to see just how many seats Labour can potentially win.

Carlow-Kilkenny

There has traditionally been a Labour seat in this constituency courtesy of Seamus Pattison. With Pattison not running in 2007, Labour failed to hold the seat for the first time since 1957. Anne Phelan will be the candidate next time around. Geographically, her base in Graiguenamanagh is not ideal and Fine Gael will pick up a seat here, but so also should Labour.

Likelihood of a gain: Very probable.

Cavan-Monaghan

Labour has no councillors in the constituency and has never won a seat in Cavan-Monaghan, securing less than 800 votes here in the last general election. Regardless of the strength of the Gilmore Gale, things won't change in the next election.

Likelihood of a gain: No chance.

Clare

This was where the Spring Tide delivered its most surprising gain in 1992 with Moosajee Bhamjee's shock win, so a gain here is not impossible. However, the party only has one councillor in the county – in the Killaloe ward – and it would take a high-profile candidate to get Labour over the line.

Likelihood of a gain: A long shot, unless the right candidate can be quickly identified. If Labour can do that, it could be game on.

Cork East

Labour got 21% here in 2007 and Sean Sherlock's seat is assured. The question is, can he bring in a running mate? One of the Fianna Fáil seats looks vulnerable but Fine Gael at 31% in the general election three years ago is more likely to take a second seat.

Likelihood of a gain: A long shot.

Cork North-Central

On paper this doesn't look fertile territory, given Labour's Kathleen Lynch won a seat last time with 60% of a quota in 2007. However, in the local elections, John Gilroy, who will be Lynch's running mate next time, got over 4,500 votes and private polls suggest a second Labour seat here is very much on. The left did extremely well in the area in the locals and Labour should benefit from transfers from the likes of Mick Barry of the Socialist Party (who cannot be discounted from the race) and Sinn Féin.

Likelihood of a gain: This will be high up on Labour's targets.

Cork North-West

Labour's Martin Coughlan got less than 5% here in 2007 but he polled reasonably well in the local elections. He is a good candidate and based on the local elections, the party is on a little under half a quota in the constituency. But geographically Coughlan's Macroom base is not ideal – Ballincollig will be a key battleground – and this is quite a conservative constituency with Fine Gael more likely to benefit from the likely Fianna Fáil loss.

Likelihood of a gain: Probably won't happen.

Cork South-Central

Labour's Ciaran Lynch won a seat here with half a quota in 2007 and Labour will be up against a formidable Fianna Fáil ticket in Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath. They may just hold on and even if one of those is to lose, a third Fine Gael seat with Jerry Buttimer looks more likely.

Likelihood of a gain: Long shot.

Cork South-West

Labour has great time for its candidate Michael McCarthy but the local elections suggest the two Fine Gael and one Fianna Fáil seats here are rock-solid. That might change if either Fine Gael TD decides not to run again.

Likelihood of a gain: Not impossible but unlikely.

Donegal North-East

Labour has made some progress in Donegal, formerly a wasteland for the party, and it now has three councillors in the county. The party has recently recruited councillor Jimmy Harte, formerly Fine Gael and independent. He certainly has political pedigree and name recognition but, while he did okay in last year's locals, he didn't poll well as an independent in the 2007 general election. If Jim McDaid doesn't stand, it would benefit Harte. Labour's vote will increase from the meagre 1.8% it got in that election but Sinn Féin looks the more likely beneficiary of any slippage for Fianna Fáil.

Likelihood of a gain: A long shot.

Donegal South-West

Frank McBrearty polled reasonably well to take a county council seat last year and shouldn't be underestimated. But for Labour to go from 2.8% to the 20% it would need to win a seat is too big a jump.

Likelihood of a gain: A long shot.

Dublin Central

With 30% of the core vote in Dublin in polls, Labour is poised to make big gains in Dublin. While it has won a seat here in every election bar one since 1992, it has never been a stronghold. This time around, Joe Costello will probably top the poll but can he bring Aine Clancy in with him? Given her performance in the local elections – 2,600 votes – it's not impossible that she would edge out Fine Gael or even Gregory candidate Maureen O'Sullivan for a seat.

Likelihood of a gain: On a good day for Labour it is on, but it will take a good day.

Dublin Mid-West

Probably the most difficult constituency to call. There will be a Fine Gael seat and a Labour seat but it's hard to say who will take them, although Joanna Tuffy should be safe. Labour has a good geographical balance on its ticket with Tuffy in Lucan and local election poll-topper Robert Dowds in Clondalkin. There should be one Fianna Fáil seat, while Green TD Paul Gogarty shouldn't be underestimated. But Labour definitely has a shot of a second seat here.

Likelihood of a gain: If Labour's current support holds up in Dublin, very possible.

Dublin North

Labour has no seats here at the moment but has hopes of taking two in a general election. Private polls suggest the party will definitely win one with Brendan Ryan, but is still a bit off a second seat. Much will depend on finding the right candidate from the Swords part of the constituency to take on the Socialist Party's Clare Daly. Labour had 1.7 quotas here in 1992 so two seats is not impossible.

Likelihood of a gain: Definitely one seat but with support for the Green Party's Trevor Sargent holding up, a second gain looks unlikely unless it comes at the expense of Fine Gael's deputy leader James Reilly.

Dublin North-Central

Richard Bruton is safe here and then it's two from Fianna Fáil's Sean Haughey, independent Finian McGrath and Labour's Aodhan O'Riordain. The two incumbents – Haughey and McGrath – will take some shifting but this is a must win for the party.

Likelihood of a gain: It's simple: if Labour really is on 30% in the capital, it will win here.

Dublin North-East

Labour's Tommy Broughan and Fine Gael's Terence Flanagan should be okay but a Fianna Fáil seat is not guaranteed. Labour's Sean Kenny won 4,000 votes in the locals and can't be ruled out and the party was on 30% overall here last year.

Likelihood of a gain: Not impossible but even with Fine Gael and Sinn Féin transfers, a second seat would be a big, big ask.

Dublin North-West

At least one Fianna Fáil seat will go – the party got just 16% in the locals here – and Fine Gael has always been weak in this constituency. Roisin Shortall will probably top the poll and has a chance of bringing her running mate – probably Andrew Montague or John Lyons – with her. Sinn Féin can't be ruled out here.

Likelihood of a gain: A genuine target constituency.

Dublin South

As with Dublin North, Labour is aiming to go from zero to two seats. It's more likely here. The party had two quotas in this constituency in 1992. There is definitely one Fine Gael, one Fianna Fáil and one Labour seat. Unless Fine Gael can seriously up its game in Dublin, three seats looks beyond it and holding two is not guaranteed while Green minister Eamon Ryan cannot be ruled out.

Likelihood of a gain: Definitely one and very possibly two.

Dublin South-Central

Probably Labour's number one target in the country, having been pipped for a second seat here by Sinn Féin in 2007. Fianna Fáil will definitely lose one of its two. Fine Gael will need Gay Mitchell on the ticket to have any chance of winning a second. Sinn Féin's Aengus Ó Snodaigh is not safe. Labour will run three candidates to win two.

Likelihood of a gain: If they don't win two here, Labour has flat-lined again.

Dublin South-East

Labour got the Ruairi Quinn-Kevin Humphreys ticket it wanted here (Ivana Bacik and Quinn were seen as too similar) and with Humphreys' ability to win the working-class vote, it has a real chance of taking two seats. With 34% of the vote in the locals, and that was before the surge in support for Labour, it looks like a battle between Labour, Fine Gael and the Greens for the last seat and as of now Labour would be favourite.

Likelihood of a gain: Assuming Labour has a good day, it could take two here.

Dublin South-West

Labour and Democratic Left had three out of five seats here in 1992, so two out of four is certainly realistic. The party got one-and-a-half quotas here in the local elections and had poll-toppers throughout the wards. With Fianna Fáil certain to lose one and possibly two seats here, Eamonn Maloney has a real chance of being elected despite the strength of Sinn Féin's former TD Sean Crowe.

Likelihood of a gain: A 50-50 call but if Labour's current support in Dublin is translated into votes on election day, it will win two seats here.

Dublin West

Looks pretty predictable with the incumbents Brian Lenihan, Leo Varadkar and Joan Burton all safe and former TD Joe Higgins tipped to take the extra seat awarded the constituency by the electoral commission. But if there is a big surge to Labour, Higgins could be vulnerable.

Likelihood of a gain: If Labour wins this seat then it will have cleaned up. Probably won't happen but certainly possible.

Dun Laoghaire

It should be prime Fine Gael territory but the Gilmore factor must surely come into play. The Labour leader will top the poll, presumably with a large surplus. There is definitely one Fine Gael seat and one of the two Fianna Fáil ministers should survive. Then it's between Labour, Fine Gael and Richard Boyd Barrett for the final seat – the Gilmore factor should swing it Labour's way.

Likelihood of a gain: Very probable.

Galway East

On paper a no-hoper; Labour got 3% here in 2007 and has never come remotely close to winning a seat here. But the party seriously rates its candidate Colm Keaveney, who won a seat in Tuam in the locals and there is the possibility of a Gilmore factor, as the party leader hails from Ahascragh. But it is hard to see it happening.

Likelihood of a gain: A Labour target, but looks unlikely.

Galway West

Much depends on who is standing. Fianna Fáil might lose one of its two seats, but former PD Noel Grealish looks strong. Fine Gael should be more likely to benefit than Labour. But if the latter is on a high nationally, then a second seat could be on.

Likelihood of a gain: Even with Michael D Higgins on the ticket, it would take a huge day for Labour to win a second seat. On balance, not likely.

Kerry North-Limerick West

An acid test for the Gilmore Gale. If it's not to be seen as little more than a gust, Labour simply has to win a seat here with Arthur Spring, Dick's nephew. It's a tough constituency in that a candidate can get over 20% of the vote and not win a seat. Jimmy Deenihan will top the poll and then it's two from Spring, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil's Tom McEllistrim, with the latter looking vulnerable.

Likelihood of a gain: A must win for Labour; a will win for Labour.

Kerry South

Labour is aiming to regain the seat formerly held by Breeda Moynihan Cronin and before that her father, Michael Moynihan, at every election, bar one, between 1981 and 2007. But it will be difficult. John O'Donoghue and Fine Gael's Tom Sheahan look too strong, so it will have to be at the expense of the Healy-Raes. Based on the local elections, there's little sign of that.

Likelihood of a gain: Won't happen.

Kildare North

Part of the Dublin commuter belt, this should be prime Labour territory. Emmet Stagg will be comfortably returned as will one of the Fine Gael candidates and one of the two Fianna Fáil TDs. Independent Catherine Murphy, a former TD and an impressive vote-getter in the locals, looks the clear favourite for the fourth seat.

Likelihood of a gain: On a very good day for Labour a second seat is a possibility, but with Murphy there as an independent, hard to see it happening.

Kildare South

One of the Fianna Fáil seats will go – Sean Power looking the more vulnerable – but Fine Gael rather than Labour, which already has a seat here with Jack Wall, will benefit.

Likelihood of a gain: Not on.

Laois-Offaly

Labour actually won a seat here in the Spring Tide of '92 so it is possible and this is now commuter-belt territory. Independents also did well in this traditional Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael constituency in the locals. With a high-profile local issues candidate, Labour would have a serious chance.

Likelihood of a gain: With the right candidate, this could be one of the big surprises of the general election.

Limerick City

One seat to go here and much will depend on what Willie O'Dea decides to do. Looks like one Fianna Fáil, two Fine Gael and Labour's Jan O'Sullivan.

Likelihood of a gain: Not on.

Limerick

The old Limerick West constituency was traditionally the preserve of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (with the former generally winning two seats to Fine Gael's one). But Labour is targeting this for a gain. Councillor James Heffernan has a good GAA background and sections of Limerick's suburbs are now in the constituency.

Likelihood of a gain: A possibility.

Longford-Westmeath

Labour will top the poll here with its extraordinary vote-getter Willie Penrose. But Penrose's base is in Westmeath and the party has been very weak in Longford. To address that, the party has recruited former PD TD Mae Sexton with a view to targeting the seat of Fianna Fáil's Peter Kelly. Kelly is vulnerable and it's hard to see FF holding two out of four seats. The lack of a Labour organisation in Longford could count against Sexton, but she is certainly in with a shout.

Likelihood of a gain: A possibility.

Louth

Labour had a seat here for 20 years up to 2002 and this will be high up on its list of targets. Ged Nash, its candidate, polled very strongly in Drogheda in the local elections (over 2,100 votes) and Labour topped the poll in all three wards in and around Drogheda. The party got around 12% of the vote in the local elections in the constituency overall. The task is made more difficult by the automatic return of Ceann Comhairle Seamus Kirk. Fianna Fáil should hold one seat of the remaining four. Fine Gael is a certainty for one, while Sinn Féin should be okay, particularly if Arthur Morgan stands. That leaves Labour and Fine Gael (and perhaps the Greens) in the shake-up for the final seat. Fine Gael has to be winning this kind of seat but, based on current polls, it is far from certain.

Likelihood of a gain: A key litmus test for how the Fine Gael vs Labour contest is going nationally. If it swings Labour's way, it will win a seat here.

Mayo

Another traditional barren spot for Labour – it got 1% of the vote here in 2007. The party has recruited Jerry Cowley, who won a seat as an independent in 2002 but whose vote dropped by over 60% five years later. Cowley has name-recognition and with Labour at 19% in polls in Connacht/Ulster, five-seat Mayo should in theory represent an opportunity. However, the presence of a former Labour man, councillor Michael Kilcoyne, is a serious fly in the ointment. He topped the poll in Castlebar last year and has a very high profile, particularly on health and consumer affairs issues. Kilcoyne, rather than Cowley, looks to have the chance of unseating one of the two Fianna Fáil TDs.

Likelihood of a gain: Slim.

Meath East

Very much in the first category of Labour targets with Senator Dominic Hannigan. Dublin commuter-belt territory. If Labour doesn't gain here, it won't gain in too many spots.

Likelihood of a gain: Definite seat.

Meath West

This should be a prime spot for a Fine Gael gain as Fianna Fáil's Johnny Brady has lost a chunk of his base with Kells town moving into Meath East. However, Labour has two county councillors in the constituency and got 4,000 votes here in the locals. If it can get another 1,500 votes – certainly achievable – then the seat is in play. Much will depend on the strength of the candidate, but this constituency falls into the commuter-belt territory where Labour is expected to perform strongly. There will be one Fianna Fáil and one Fine Gael TD; the final seat is between Labour, Fine Gael and possibly Fianna Fáil.

Likelihood of a gain: It shouldn't do it, but it might.

Roscommon-South Leitrim

Traditionally a wasteland for Labour but in councillor John Kelly, the party certainly has a chance. Kelly topped the poll in Castlerea as an independent with over 2,200 votes last year and got 4,500 votes in the last general election. He is strong in Castlerea/Ballaghadereen and was originally from near Roscommon town, which will be a key battleground. The local elections suggest that Fianna Fáil still has a quota and it's difficult to see either Fine Gael TD losing out.

Likelihood of a gain: Possible rather than probable.

Sligo-North Leitrim

There is a Fianna Fáil seat likely to go here but Fine Gael rather than Labour's Susan O'Keeffe looks much more likely to take it, particularly with a west of Ireland man leading Fine Gael. Labour did win a seat here in 1992 though.

Likelihood of a gain: Not impossible, but looks unlikely.

Tipperary North

Labour has fallen short over the past two decades in a constituency where it used to regularly have a TD. But MEP Alan Kelly is a force of nature who doesn't contemplate defeat. He should clean up in Nenagh at the expense of Fianna Fáil's Maire Hoctor. There is still one certain Fianna Fáil seat which – with Hoctor under pressure from Kelly – could go to Michael Smith (son of the former minister). Michael Lowry's work rate and delivery in the constituency should see him retain his seat ahead of Fine Gael TD Noel Coonan.

Likelihood of a gain: Very much on for Labour here.

Tipperary South

A place where Labour has won in the past but, a bit like Kildare North, the party's problem here is the presence of a strong left-wing independent. Fianna Fáil will lose one of its two seats, Fine Gael's Tom Hayes looks rock-solid but the favourite for the third seat is former TD Seamus Healy of the Workers Unemployed Action Group – who polled big in last year's locals – rather than Labour senator Phil Prendergast.

Likelihood of a gain: Unlikely.

Waterford

Again, Fianna Fáil will drop a seat but Labour's base is heavily concentrated in the city and while Brian O'Shea is
rock-solid, Fine Gael or an independent looks far more likely to gain here unless Labour can produce a high-profile candidate.

Likelihood of a gain: A possibility but an outside one.

Wexford

Two certain seats here for Fine Gael, one for Fianna Fáil and one for Labour's Brendan Howlin. All three parties will have their eye on the fifth seat, with Fianna Fáil the marginal favourite. Howlin's vote is heavily concentrated in Wexford town, leaving open the possibility of a candidate from the north of the constituency – such as Councillor Pat Cody, who won a seat in the Enniscorthy ward – to tap into Labour's potential strength in commuter-belt areas such as Gorey (although that is where Fine Gael's Michael D'Arcy is very strong). Labour went from one to four councillors in the local elections so can't be discounted.

Likelihood of a gain: On a good day, a second seat is a real possibility.

Wicklow

Labour has been targeting two seats here for the past couple of elections but fell short. Given Labour's strength in the greater Dublin area, it's a more realistic target this time around. Joe Behan's independent status will help his cause of retaining his seat, while there is definitely one Fianna Fáil seat and probably two Fine Gael. Labour has yet to settle on its ticket here but it may include Conal Kavanagh, son of the former minister Liam Kavanagh, alongside Liz McManus and probably a third candidate.

Likelihood of a gain: If Labour is at 30% in Dublin, it will gain a seat here.

Labour has 20 seats: where can another 20 come from?

The bankers (7)

Dublin South Central*, Dublin South (1), Meath East, Dublin North, Tipperary North, Carlow-Kilkenny, Kerry North-Limerick West.

The probables (7)

Cork North Central*, Dublin North-Central, Dublin South-East*, Dublin South-West*, Dun Laoghaire*, Louth, Wicklow*.

The strong possibilities (8)

Longford-Westmeath*, Dublin Central*, Dublin Mid-West*, Dublin North-West*, Dublin South (2), Laois-Offaly, Wexford*, Meath West.

Possibilities (8)

Roscommon South-Leitrim, Clare, Dublin North-East*, Dublin West*, Galway West*, Kildare North*, Limerick, Waterford*.

Long shots (13)

Cork East*, Cork North-West, Cork South-Central*, Cork South-West, Donegal North-East, Donegal South-West, Dublin North (2), Galway East, Kerry South, Limerick City*, Mayo, Sligo-North Leitrim, Tipperary South.

No hope (2)

Cavan-Monaghan, Kildare South*.

* Constituencies where Labour already has one TD