LABOUR is on course to win in excess of 40 seats in a general election if it can come close to replicating its current opinion poll standing, a detailed analysis of the 43 constituencies has confirmed.

Using a combination of national polls, private constituency polls and local election results, along with consulting with on-the-ground experts, the Sunday Tribune has analysed Labour's prospects in each of the state's constituencies.

While leader Eamon Gilmore's assessment last week that Labour had the potential to win more than 50 seats looks overly optimistic, a haul in the mid-30s looks guaranteed with another 16 seats very much in play for the party.

Unless there is a dramatic reversal in the party's poll ratings, Labour will gain seats in Dublin South-Central, Dublin South, Meath East, Dublin North, Tipperary North, Carlow-Kilkenny and Kerry North-Limerick West.

It is also on course to win seats in Louth and Dublin North-Central and add second seats in Cork North-Central, Dublin South-East, Dublin South-West, Dun Laoghaire and Wicklow.

That would bring the party to 34 seats – two better than the party's best-ever performance in the 'Spring Tide' of 1992.

And the party also has strong possibilities of picking up seats in Longford-Westmeath, Dublin Central, Dublin Mid-West, Dublin North-West, a second gain in Dublin South, Wexford, Meath West and, with the right candidate, Laois-Offaly, where it won a seat in 1992.

And it will also be in the hunt in constituencies such as Roscommon-South Leitrim, Clare (another place where it won in 1992), Limerick and the likes of Dublin North-East, Dublin West, Galway West, Kildare North, Galway West and Waterford where it already has one sitting deputy.

But Gilmore's claim that the party is well placed to win a seat in every constituency does look overly optimistic. The party has no chance of a seat in Cavan-Monaghan, while Tipperary South, Sligo-North Leitrim, Mayo, Kerry South, Galway East, the two Donegal constituencies and Cork South-West could all remain without a Labour deputy.

However, the party's strength in Dublin – where at the moment it has strong chances of two seats in almost all the constituencies – will compensate for that.

As things currently stand it is Labour, rather than Fine Gael, that is picking up the seats that will likely be lost by Fianna Fáil. This is accepted privately by many Fine Gael TDs despite the party's public insistence that it is on course for 70 seats. "At 25% or 26%, Labour could get nearly as many seats as Fine Gael at 30%," one senior Fine Gael figure said.

If Labour does get in excess of 40 seats, it would put Gilmore in a position to seek a revolving Taoiseach in any coalition with Fine Gael.