A VETERAN Labour TD is to oppose the party's strategy of putting two candidates forward in certain constituencies in the next general election.
Even though his party has been riding historically high in opinion polls, Kildare South TD Jack Wall believes Labour cannot win a second seat in the constituency and does not want a Labour colleague added to the party ticket.
Under the 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' banner, the party believes it can win 50 seats in the next general election and it has adopted a strategy of running two candidates in constituencies where the party already has a sitting TD.
Wall was one of the unsuccessful Labour candidates in 1992, when the party won 33 seats in what was dubbed the 'Spring Tide' under the leadership of Dick Spring. He was appointed to the Seanad the following year and has been a TD for Kildare South since 1997.
When contacted by the Sunday Tribune, Wall insisted there was no animosity between him and party headquarters over the issue. But he did say: "I don't believe that it is possible to get two candidates elected in Kildare South.
"There has been no discussion at branch level or at national level and it will be up to the party organisation in Kildare South to decide."
In a recent interview, Eamon Gilmore said his party was well-positioned to win a seat in each of the country's 43 constituencies and two in constituencies in Dublin and other urban areas.
Recent opinion polls have placed Labour in the mid to high 20s and with a 30% core vote in Dublin, so this does bolster claims that a 'Gilmore Gale' may be on the horizon.
A statistical analysis of last year's local elections, carried out by the Sunday Tribune, found that if the results of the locals were replicated in a general election, Labour would have just below one quota. Transfers would certainly elect the popular Wall in a general election but the party would need to multiply its support greatly if it is to return a second TD along with him.
Labour got about 14.5% in the last LEs, and are on course for at least twice that in the next GE (or more, depending on the polling company you believe). If LP were "just below a quota" in the LEs in Kildare Sth, this would suggest that they should be at least around 40% on current polling, and somewhere like Kildare Sth should be getting a swing close enough to the natinoal average - it's not Dublin Central, but it's not Donegal either.
This would be absurdly safe for 1 candidate to be elected, and make a 2nd candidate's election probable.
Sure, if the LP vote fell back to 15% or so, 1 candidate would be a reasonable strategy, but as long as they are over 20% in the polls, they would be crazy not to run the second candidate.