The thrilling 2022 World Cup final culminated in a tense penalty shootout, where Argentina triumphed over France after both teams finished regulation time and extra time with three goals each. Argentina clinched the championship with a decisive 4-2 victory in penalties.
Penalties can dramatically influence the outcome of matches in the World Cup, underscoring the importance of a sound approach to taking them. What strategies can be gleaned from statistical analyses and research regarding penalty kicks?
Winning the Toss: A Crucial Advantage
One of the most advantageous actions a team can take during a shootout is winning the coin toss. Research encompassing shootouts in significant competitions like the World Cup, European Championship, and various English domestic cups from 1970 to 2003 reveals that the team that kicks first emerges victorious 60.5% of the time. Moreover, subsequent studies after the 2003 rule change, which allowed the coin-toss winner to choose whether to shoot first or second, indicated that simply winning the toss is more beneficial. Approximately 60% of teams that won the toss secured a win in the shootout, compared to a 51% success rate for those who shot first.
The Significance of a Proper Run-Up
A comprehensive study involving over 1,700 penalties from the 2015-16 to 2018-19 seasons highlights the findings of a 2020 paper in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.
Lead author Mikael Jamil and his team examined various techniques and factors influencing penalty success across top leagues in England, Spain, Germany, and Italy. One notable discovery was that effective techniques varied by country; for instance, shots aimed down the middle correlated with higher success rates in the Premier League, while La Liga players tended to favor the bottom-left and bottom-right corners.
Across all four leagues, a lengthy run-up (exceeding six steps) was linked to successful penalties. In every league except Italy, a medium run-up (two to five steps) also proved effective, while short run-ups did not offer any significant advantage.
Balancing Power and Placement
A 2002 study, though limited in sample size, suggests that powerful shots are more likely to miss, while weaker shots are easier for goalkeepers to save. The ideal approach appears to be striking a balance, with shots executed at about 75% of maximum power yielding the highest success rates.
In Jamil’s 2020 study, shots were categorized based on kicking technique—those taken with the inside of the foot were considered placed shots, while those struck with the instep were deemed powerful. Both types resulted in successful penalties in Spain, Italy, and Germany, but in England, only placement was significantly associated with success.
Once again, preferences varied by country: placement was favored in the Premier League and Serie A, while power was more common in La Liga and the Bundesliga. Notably, Panenka-style chips were not widely successful in any league.
Targeting the Right Spot
Numerous studies have examined the targeted areas of the goal by penalty takers to uncover optimal strategies. Researchers divided the goal into sections and recorded where shots were aimed, as well as whether they were saved, missed, or scored.
Findings from a 2016 study by Carlos Almeida and co-authors, published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, support the notion that footballers and fans alike recognize a trade-off between risk and reward in shot placement.
Shots aimed at the upper sections of the goal tend to be more difficult to save but also carry a higher risk of missing entirely. Despite the increased difficulty in saving high shots, players often opt for low shots, likely due to a preference for hitting the target rather than risking a complete miss.
Looking back at the penalty shootouts during the 2022 World Cup reinforces this theory; few shots were directed at the upper part of the goal.
While Almeida’s 2016 research did not cover this, other studies suggest that shooting centrally can be an effective strategy, although it may vary by league. A 2009 analysis of 311 penalties from various men’s professional leagues revealed that shots aimed down the middle faced fewer saves than those directed at the corners. Premier League data from Opta indicates that shots low to the left have a success rate of 77.2%, while low to the right stands at 80%. In contrast, high shots down the middle boast an impressive 97.8% success rate, and low shots aimed at the center achieve 80.2%.
Jamil’s 2020 study also explored shot placement, indicating that shooting towards the center correlated with successful penalties in the Premier League, while bottom corner shots were similarly effective in other leagues.
Understanding Goalkeeper Behavior
Several studies have tracked goalkeeper movements during penalty kicks. Due to the rapid pace of penalties, goalkeepers often cannot rely on reaction time to save shots; instead, they tend to make educated guesses based on player body language and previous penalty habits.
An intriguing statistic emerges across multiple studies: goalkeepers typically dive to the left or right, despite 20% to 30% of shots being aimed down the middle.
Researchers suggest that goalkeepers exhibit a bias towards action; they prefer to be seen attempting to dive and save the ball, even if they misjudge the direction, rather than remaining stationary while a shot rolls into the corner. Notable exceptions include Andrew “The Grey Wiggle” Redmayne, who successfully anticipated a Panenka from Brendon Santalab in the 2019 A-League Men grand final, and Édouard Mendy, who correctly predicted Brahim Díaz’s shot during January’s Africa Cup of Nations final.
The Element of Surprise
While some statistics indicate that goalkeepers rarely remain in the middle and shots aimed there can be effective, there is also a strategic element to penalties. Goalkeepers often study the penalty-taking tendencies of their opponents; if all players begin shooting towards the center, goalkeepers would adapt accordingly. Consequently, researchers argue that one of the most effective strategies for penalty takers is to maintain unpredictability and regularly alter their approach to spot kicks.
- This is an updated version of an article originally published in 2023.
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