Green party senator Dan Boyle: AIB will be majority state controlled by this time next year

What do you expect to happen at the banks in the next few months?

The [Peter Nyberg] banking inquiry will identify people who are still in the system and the fact that there are still people in positions in the major banks – in AIB and Bank of Ireland – who were part of the ancien regime and were responsible for policies which brought us to where we are. The expectation is that some of those people need to fall on their swords. That is the type of thing I hope to happen.

Our own [the Green Party's] insistence in the Nama legislation was that the boards would have to be completely replaced in two years in any case. That is something we would argue we have put into legislation.

Now, AIB, in particular, is operating on the fiction that it does not have a chief executive, but a managing director, and it has an executive chairman for this defined period of 18 months. I think that has only been agreed to by the Department of Finance on the expectation of further information. That is my reading of it.

What does that mean?

If other information comes out that links the other individuals to the banks' policies – for instance the banking inquiry and the like – that means they have to consider their position and they cannot be considered long-term replacements in the organisation. That is the way I would see it.

AIB, in particular, went more down the Anglo road than Bank of Ireland. AIB seemed to be less co-operative with the Department of Finance and Nama in the early part of the banking crisis.

AIB are the people who have been least willing to replace their older executives. If the banking inquiry links the specific policies within the institutions then the senior executives who made those policy decisions, their positions become less tenable. That is my own personal aspect. There would be a logic in the banking inquiry for that to happen.

Bank of Ireland also engaged in indiscriminate practices. [Bank of Ireland's] Richie Boucher does not seem as compromised as Colm Doherty [at AIB]. I still think the same principles should apply. I think he [Boucher] might have a better argument.

Would you bet on AIB staying out of majority state control?

I think it will be majority controlled by this time next year. My preference is that we would keep it under 70% so in the case of a re-sale we will have that sort of benchmark. I have never seen it being fully nationalised but it can get quite close to the 70% [ownership level]. The exercise to raise €7.4bn is to get the bank to concentrate on core competencies and to see what it gets from disposals. Then it has to go to the market to find other resources.

Bank of Ireland is doing better in that regard. We have to see what the nature of the shortfall is. In some ways, it is immaterial. The bank either ends up getting the money from the money markets or the state gets the money from the money markets. Either way, the state ends up paying the same interest rate.

What about funding the banks through promissory notes?

I am worried about the concept of promissory notes. Even though it is an accounting exercise, I am not sure they will ever be considered as non-state aid by the EC or Eurostat. If it becomes part of our national debt statistics then that changes the mathematics a bit.

What do you think of Anglo's plans for a good and not-so-good bank?

It is the only thing that will make whatever's left in the bank viable. But I am a bit dubious about it. Is the money the state is putting into it the least-cost option – that is the only thing that informs policy as far as we are concerned. It is not the continuance of Anglo or whatever it is called in the future because it obviously needs a re-branding.

As far as we are concerned, if there is an immediate or mid-term wind-down that is more cost effective then that is what should happen. That is, three or four years instead of a 15-year [wind-down]. It is not an active bank. It is not unlike Sean FitzPatrick's own position. He has a 12-year bankruptcy programme.

What about the information the banks gave to Nama?

To be fair, the banks gave that information before Nama was established. I think they obviously were trying to present figures in the best light for themselves. And the false figures seem to have come from Anglo, Nationwide and to a lesser extent AIB. I think the banking inquiry will reveal all that. It worked on two levels. You heard Sean FitzPatrick making public pronouncements that €1.5bn was all that was needed to save Anglo, and on the official level, when figures were sought they were provided subsequently.

They were taken on trust and they were obviously false figures, given to present the banks in the best possible light. So Nama did a business plan on that basis. At the time, I said I did not expect Nama to make a profit. At the time, I said I did not see a 30% discount. I said I saw a 50% discount.

What matters with Nama is that it breaks even, so many of these numbers are in a way irrelevant. But the fact that there has been a lack of co-operation ... I think that that is serious.

I believe that Nama is the best way to go – it has been endorsed by the EC, the ECB and the IMF even. Many of the criticisms made about Nama haven't come to pass – that it was going to artificially buoy up the property market. It has far from done that. The discounts were said to be going to be far smaller than they needed to be. That hasn't happened. [It was said] that there were would not be a willingness to chase after individuals and institutions and to get developers to put up money. Again, that is not the case. I think Nama will do its job effectively. I am more worried about the debt money in Anglo and Nationwide, to be honest with you. I think that is the bigger crisis.

What are your thoughts on the outcome of the ECB's stress tests?

The commission has yet to approve the Anglo plan even. One will inform the other. I would be more confident about Bank of Ireland than AIB. But I think both are still recoverable. The way I see government policy is that you have a viable AIB and Bank of Ireland for competition purposes. A merger is less likely.

Dan Boyle will speak on the banking and financial crises at the MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Co Donegal this week.