THERE'S no question that the next general election will be seismic in terms of its impact on the political landscape. But, for all that, there has never been an election where there has been so little doubt about the make-up of the next government.

Opinion polls only really began properly in the early 1980s, so before that point, predicting the outcome of an election was the political equivalent of pinning the tail on the donkey.

Even with access to polls, the outcome has generally remained in doubt up to polling day and often far beyond that, as various government formations were contemplated.

The three elections in 18 months in 1981 and '82 were very close affairs, although the November '82 campaign could be clearly seen to be slipping away from Fianna Fáil from the off. In 1987, it was felt that Fianna Fáil would win an overall majority, but that didn't happen. Ditto two years later when a totally unanticipated Fianna Fáil-PD coalition emerged. The 1992 election could have led to the formation of various governments (and ended up producing two different coalitions).

The 1997 contest was, to borrow a phrase from Dan Rather, tighter than a "too-small bathing suit on a too-long ride home from the beach". The Rainbow coalition should have won but didn't.

Fine Gael was obviously facing meltdown in the run-up to 2002, but there was doubt as to whether the next government would be a Fianna Fáil overall majority or a combination of Fianna Fáil with the PDs or the Labour Party (with most analysts plumping for the latter). Five years later most of the same analysts were predicting a Fine Gael-Labour-Green Rainbow.

But this time around is different. Unless something truly extraordinary happens between now and March (and even then it probably wouldn't matter), the next government will be made up of Fine Gael and Labour. The only questions are: how huge will their majority be? And what will the break-down of seats be between the two parties?

As of now, it looks as if they will have 100-plus seats between them and that Fine Gael will have at least a 60:40 advantage – although both these assumptions could change significantly in the course of a campaign.

But what won't change is the enormous prize on offer for the two parties. If they play their cards right, they have the potential to be in power for at least 10 years (the best either has managed before is four and a half) and relegate Fianna Fáil forever from its status as the 'natural party of government'.

However, to do that, they must avoid the mistakes of the past, most notably their disastrous coalition of the mid-1980s. For four interminable and depressing years, divisions between Fine Gael and Labour meant that tough decisions were shirked and the already awful public finances continued to decline.

Labour was the chief culprit that time around, refusing to countenance cuts in spending that were clearly unavoidable. But Fine Gael was not blameless either. A repeat performance a quarter of a century later simply cannot be countenanced, for their sake and for the country.

Ideally, the long and tortuous, on-off programme for government negotiations between the two parties post-polling day would be truncated. Certainly, what we don't need right now is a programme for government long on aspirational and esoteric platitudes and short on the brutal economic realities.

Of course, political realities will dictate that we will have the charade of the programme for government negotiations. Fair enough. But after that, the new government needs to quickly show that it means business. It's about the economy stupid, and it's pretty obvious what needs to be done and most of it is not pretty.

Right now there are large policy differences between the two would-be coalition partners, particularly on the speed in which the budget deficit needs to be addressed and the breakdown between tax increases and spending.

These differences definitely won't stop Fine Gael and Labour putting together a programme for government. But they do have the potential to lead to paralysis in government at a later date.

In that regard, the choice of finance minister is critical. He or she will have to be both politically skilful and tough – with the latter characteristic more important than the former.

In opposition, you can wax lyrical about eliminating waste and taxing the rich. In government, the reality is that spending is dominated by social welfare and public sector pay and the majority of tax revenue comes from the great mass of workers. Unfortunately, if you want to make savings, they're the areas you have to hit.

The common perception is that Labour will insist on the finance portfolio in the new coalition. But there is also a view within Labour that it should not do so because of what holding the job will entail. If that view prevails, then Michael Noonan will be the next finance minister and there is little doubt he understands what needs to be done.

Whether the same will hold true for the electorate and the government backbenchers is likely to prove much trickier. As US voters found after Barack Obama replaced George Bush, a new administration does not suddenly make everything alright. The ABFF (anybody but Fianna Fáil) sentiment that exists at the moment will help propel Fine Gael and Labour to power but it won't ensure their popularity for long when they have to make painful decisions.

And that could be difficult for government TDs to accept, particularly when up to half of them could be first-time deputies, unused to the rough and tumble of national politics. With such a large majority, the temptation for backbenchers to rebel against unpopular measures will be enormous.

It's difficult to know what, if anything, Fine Gael and Labour can do to head off such dissent. Ideally, it would seek to manage expectations between now and polling day as to what will be possible (or, more relevantly, impossible) when it comes to power.

With both parties striving for ascendency in the new government that is probably wishful thinking. But that doesn't alter the reality for Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore that winning the election is going to be the easy bit. The big challenges will come after that.

scoleman@tribune.ie